Killexams.com ASC-012 Dumps and existent Questions
100% existent Questions - Exam Pass Guarantee with lofty Marks - Just Memorize the Answers
ASC-012 exam Dumps Source : ASC lofty Availablity Assessment
Test Code : ASC-012
Test appellation : ASC lofty Availablity Assessment
Vendor appellation : Symantec
: 75 existent Questions
Take profit of ASC-012 exam and rep certified.
I sincerely thank you. Ive cleared the ASC-012 examination with the back of your mock checks. It Come to live very an Awful lotbeneficial. I genuinely should endorse to people who are going to materialize the ASC-012.
hints & tricks to certify ASC-012 exam with unreasonable scores.
this is the first-rate occupy a watch at-prep on the market! I just took and exceeded my ASC-012. most efficient one questionbecome unseen in the examination. The records that comes with the QA beget this product some distance greater than a mind-unload, for coupled with traditional research; online testing engine is an extremely valuable device in advancing ones profession.
am i able to find dumps Q & A modern ASC-012 examination?
Becoming a member of killexams.Com felt relish getting the attribute journey of my lifestyles. I used to live so excited because I knew that now id live capable of bypass my ASC-012 examination and could live the primary in my enterprise company that has this qualification. I was proper and the usage of the net assets over birthright here I certainly passed my ASC-012 test and become capable of beget outright and sundry proud. It became a lucky fervor and that i propose that each different student who wishes toexperience relish Im fervor want to deliver this killexams.Com a honest hazard.
satisfactory experience with , bypass with lofty score.
Im able to recommend you to fade back proper birthright here to reclaim off outright fears related to ASC-012 certification because that is a exceptional platform to offer you with assured objects to your arrangements. I used to live concerned for ASC-012 examination however outright route to killexams.Com who provided me with top notch merchandise for my education. I used to live definitely concerned about my fulfillment but it emerge as first-class ASC-012 examination engine that elevated my success self belief and now im fervor delight in this unconditional help. Hats off to you and your improbable services for outright students and specialists!
Pleased to hear that Latest dumps of ASC-012 exam are available here.
I become trying to rep prepared for my ASC-012 test that turned into across the nook, I discovered myself to live lost within the books and wandering a ways away from the existent point. I didnt recognize a separate word and that changed into absolutely concerning due to the fact I had to prepare as quickly as feasible. Giving up on my books I decided to sign up myself on this Killexams.Com and that became the attribute choice. I cruised via my ASC-012 test and become capable of rep a decent rating so thanks very much.
surprised to survey ASC-012 existent exam questions!
The nice guidance i hold ever skilled. I took many ASC-012 certification tests, but ASC-012 became out to live the easiest one thanks to killexams.com. ive recently establish this internet site and wish I knew approximately it a few years in the past. might hold stored me a number of sleepless nights and gray hair! The ASC-012 examination isnt an smooth one, specificallyits cutting-edge version. but the ASC-012 Q and A includes the trendy questions, daily updates, and those are without a doubtproper and legitimate questions. Im satisfied this is unquestionable motive I got maximum of them outright through my examination. I were given an extremely pleasant rating and thank killexams.com to making ASC-012 examination pressure-loose.
Found an accurate source for existent ASC-012 actual test questions.
Like many others, ive currently handed the ASC-012 exam. In my case, sizable majority of ASC-012 examination questions got hereexactly from this manual. The solutions are correct, too, so if you are preparing to occupy your ASC-012 examination, you cancompletely depend upon this internet site.
actual ASC-012 questions and humor dumps! It justify the fee.
This is the best exam readiness I hold ever gone over. I passed this ASC-012 confederate exam bother free. No shove, no tension, and no sadness amid the exam. I knew outright that I required to know from this killexams.com pack. The inquiries are substantial, and I got notification from my companion that their cash back surety lives up to expectations.
proper area to ascertain ASC-012 dumps paper.
Nice..I cleared the ASC-012 exam. The killexams.com question bank helped a lot. Very useful indeed. Cleared the ASC-012 with 95%.I am certain everyone can pass the exam after completing your tests. The explanations were very helpful. Thanks. It was a magnificient experience with killexams.com in terms of collection of questions, their interpretation and pattern in which you hold set the papers. I am grateful to you and give replete credit to you guys for my success.
It is unbelieveable, but ASC-012 actual test questions are availabe here.
Positive, the query bank will live very beneficial and i hint it to everyone who desires to occupy the ones checks. Congrats on a manner nicely concept out and executed. I cleared my ASC-012 tests.
While it is very difficult stint to pick reliable certification questions / answers resources with respect to review, reputation and validity because people rep ripoff due to choosing wrong service. Killexams.com beget it certain to serve its clients best to its resources with respect to exam dumps update and validity. Most of other's ripoff report complaint clients Come to us for the brain dumps and pass their exams happily and easily. They never compromise on their review, reputation and attribute because killexams review, killexams reputation and killexams client assurance is Important to us. Specially they occupy supervision of killexams.com review, killexams.com reputation, killexams.com ripoff report complaint, killexams.com trust, killexams.com validity, killexams.com report and killexams.com scam. If you survey any unfounded report posted by their competitors with the appellation killexams ripoff report complaint internet, killexams.com ripoff report, killexams.com scam, killexams.com complaint or something relish this, just withhold in humor that there are always depraved people damaging reputation of pleasant services due to their benefits. There are thousands of satisfied customers that pass their exams using killexams.com brain dumps, killexams PDF questions, killexams rehearse questions, killexams exam simulator. Visit Killexams.com, their sample questions and sample brain dumps, their exam simulator and you will definitely know that killexams.com is the best brain dumps site.
Back to Braindumps Menu
ASC-012 exam questions | ASC-012 free pdf | ASC-012 pdf download | ASC-012 test questions | ASC-012 real questions | ASC-012 practice questions
Never miss these ASC-012 questions you fade for test.
On the off random that would you shriek you are loaded how to pass your Symantec ASC-012 Exam? With the assistance of the affirmed killexams.com Symantec ASC-012 Testing Engine you will figure out how to wreck your abilties. Most of the researchers originate distinguishing when they find that they need to materialize in IT confirmation. Their brain dumps are finished and to the point. The Symantec ASC-012 PDF records beget your innovative and perceptive expansive and back you parcels in guidance of the accreditation exam.
At killexams.com, they offer completely verified Symantec ASC-012 actual Questions and Answers that are simply needed for Passing ASC-012 exam, and to induce certified by Symantec. they actually facilitate people better their information to memorize the and certify. It is a most suitable option to accelerate your career as an expert within the business.
killexams.com pleased with their appellation of serving to people pass the ASC-012 exam in their initial attempt. Their success rates within the past 2 years are fully spectacular, because of their lucky customers are currently ready to boost their career within the quick lane. killexams.com is the beloved alternative among IT professionals, particularly those are trying to climb up the hierarchy levels quicker in their respective organizations.
killexams.com Discount Coupons and Promo Codes are as under;
WC2017 : 60% Discount Coupon for outright exams on website
PROF17 : 10% Discount Coupon for Orders larger than $69
DEAL17 : 15% Discount Coupon for Orders larger than $99
SEPSPECIAL : 10% Special Discount Coupon for outright Orders
At killexams.com, they provide thoroughly reviewed Symantec ASC-012 training resources which are the best for Passing ASC-012 test, and to rep certified by Symantec. It is a best choice to accelerate your career as a professional in the Information Technology industry. They are supercilious of their reputation of helping people pass the ASC-012 test in their very first attempts. Their success rates in the past two years hold been absolutely impressive, thanks to their lucky customers who are now able to boost their career in the snappily lane. killexams.com is the number one choice among IT professionals, especially the ones who are looking to climb up the hierarchy levels faster in their respective organizations. Symantec is the industry leader in information technology, and getting certified by them is a guaranteed route to succeed with IT careers. They back you conclude exactly that with their lofty attribute Symantec ASC-012 training materials.
Symantec ASC-012 is omnipresent outright around the world, and the commerce and software solutions provided by them are being embraced by almost outright the companies. They hold helped in driving thousands of companies on the sure-shot path of success. Comprehensive scholarship of Symantec products are required to certify a very Important qualification, and the professionals certified by them are highly valued in outright organizations.
We provide existent ASC-012 pdf exam questions and answers braindumps in two formats. Download PDF & rehearse Tests. Pass Symantec ASC-012 existent Exam quickly & easily. The ASC-012 braindumps PDF sort is available for reading and printing. You can print more and rehearse many times. Their pass rate is lofty to 98.9% and the similarity percentage between their ASC-012 study lead and existent exam is 90% based on their seven-year educating experience. conclude you want achievements in the ASC-012 exam in just one try?
Cause outright that matters here is passing the ASC-012 - ASC lofty Availablity Assessment exam. As outright that you need is a lofty score of Symantec ASC-012 exam. The only one thing you need to conclude is downloading braindumps of ASC-012 exam study guides now. They will not let you down with their money-back guarantee. The professionals besides withhold pace with the most up-to-date exam in order to present with the the majority of updated materials. Three Months free access to live able to them through the date of buy. Every candidates may afford the ASC-012 exam dumps via killexams.com at a low price. Often there is a discount for anyone all.
In the presence of the unquestionable exam content of the brain dumps at killexams.com you can easily develop your niche. For the IT professionals, it is vital to enhance their skills according to their career requirement. They beget it easy for their customers to occupy certification exam with the back of killexams.com verified and unquestionable exam material. For a brilliant future in the world of IT, their brain dumps are the best option.
killexams.com Huge Discount Coupons and Promo Codes are as under;
WC2017 : 60% Discount Coupon for outright exams on website
PROF17 : 10% Discount Coupon for Orders greater than $69
DEAL17 : 15% Discount Coupon for Orders greater than $99
OCTSPECIAL : 10% Special Discount Coupon for outright Orders
A top dumps writing is a very Important feature that makes it easy for you to occupy Symantec certifications. But ASC-012 braindumps PDF offers convenience for candidates. The IT certification is quite a difficult stint if one does not find proper guidance in the contour of unquestionable resource material. Thus, they hold unquestionable and updated content for the preparation of certification exam.
ASC-012 Practice Test | ASC-012 examcollection | ASC-012 VCE | ASC-012 study guide | ASC-012 practice exam | ASC-012 cram
killexams.com huge List of Exam Braindumps
ASC lofty Availablity Assessment
Pass 4 certain ASC-012 dumps | Killexams.com ASC-012 existent questions | https://www.textbookw.com/
Cambrex (CBM) is a supplier of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) to the pharmaceutical industries. Based on its 2017 figures, ~66% of revenues are from supplying APIs for innovator drugs (i.e. non-generic), ~20% of revenues are from supplying APIs for generic drugs, and the rest from supplying APIs for controlled substance. As disclosed in CBM's 2017 10-K, 32.8% of revenues is from supplying sofosbuvir API for Gilead's (GILD) hepatitis C (HCV) drugs (Sovaldi, Harvoni, Epclusa, and Vosevi). Gilead's hepatitis C franchise became the largest drug in history when it sold over $19 billion worldwide in 2015. However, it has since experienced rapid decline as a result of competition and shrinking addressable market (the drug cures the disease, so each person that was treated shrinks the market size by 1).
Given the rapid decline in the franchise, Cambrex has been matter to frequent short-selling discussions over the past several years. The short thesis was very simple. As Gilead's hepatitis C drugs declined, CBM's profit would decline significantly given its outsized contribution margin. However, the thesis hasn't really played out yet as sofosbuvir API sales continue sturdy into 2017. However, the downtrend is starting, as CBM itself expects a significant decline in revenue from sofosbuvir in 2018 and 2019 (repeatedly discussed on multiple earnings muster since Q4 2017 earnings muster but no further details provided beyond that) based on the minimum volume commitment from Gilead.
In my opinion, the short thesis is delayed, rather than being wrong, due to minimum volume commitment in the agreement between GILD and CBM. However, the actual intermission market demand will eventually prescribe the smooth of CBM's sales to GILD over time. If GILD's inventory of the HCV API is indeed as unreasonable as I believe it to be, orders from GILD will tumble off the cliff when there is no longer a minimum volume commitment in 2020, especially when intermission market demand continues to decline and pricing of the API gets reset.
I believe the short occasion exists today because
despite CBM trading volume of over $20M a day, its sellside coverage (Craig-Hallum, First Analysis, Jefferies, Stephens, William Blair) is quite limited with outright being cheerleaders of the stock;
much of the drudgery presented herein require primary research, including but is not limited to analyzing a eccentric company and its financials only available in eccentric language;
consensus figures are outright over the plot with some including the recent acquisition while others conclude not;
some may not hold factored-in the $425M paid for a sizable recent acquisition (most recent poise sheet does not reflect that) while consensus figures comprise some of the earnings / EBITDA from such acquisition, thus making the stock materialize cheaper than it really is; and
management's overly optimistic guidance that is reflected in the sellside's projections.
When CBM's enterprise value is properly calculated by including cost paid for its recent acquisition, CBM is trading at over 15x 2019 EBITDA and at a premium to its closest peer Catalent (CTLT). Given the valuation premium despite the GILD HCV headwind, I believe any upside potential for the stock is quite limited. Excluding my estimated substantial over-earnings from GILD's HCV business, which can live completely reset as early as in 2020, CBM is actually trading at over ~22-27x 2019 EBITDA (see the Valuation table at the intermission of the article). If the stock were to trade inline with CTLT at ~14x 2019 EBITDA, CBM's partake cost should live at ~$33-42, 38-52% below where it is today. As people recognize the decline in GILD's commerce and realize its associated profit drop is more ascetic than they expect, the stock will live significantly derated.
Lastly, short interest of the stock is only at less than 13% of float, so this is not yet a consensus short with plenty of borrow availability.
ST Pharm, the other major supplier of sofosbuvir API to Gilead foreshadows what will chance to Cambrex
Based on regulatory and company's filings (exhibits 1 & 2), ST Pharm, a Korean API manufacturer, is the other primary sofosbuvir API supplier to Gilead (we already know CBM is a significant supplier based on CBM's filings and earnings calls). Given ST Pharm's filings are only in Korean, it took some effort dig up and translate the figures to understand what has been going on. Without these figures, it was difficult to piece together the sofosbuvir API supply picture. In addition, I believe many CBM's bulls are not conscious of what has been happening at ST Pharm lately.
Exhibit 1. One of Sovaldi's European Medicines Agency filings
Exhibit 2. Sofosbuvir API sales to GILD from CBM and ST Pharm
If one looks at the trajectory of CBM's and ST Pharm's income statements (exhibit 3), it is not difficult to find similarities. Both companies hold experienced tremendous margin expansion as a result of the growth in its commerce to Gilead.
Exhibit 3. Historical Financials of CBM and ST Pharm
While bulls believe CBM's margins can live sustained at a relatively lofty smooth because management has guided to lofty 30%'s to 40% low margin long term since Q2 2017 earnings call, one should occupy a watch what has happened to ST Pharm 2018 results so far (exhibit 4). ST Pharm's operating margin has dropped from over 30% to separate digit in 2018 (with a degradation margin on lost revenues of ~65%)!
Exhibit 4. ST Pharm's Historical Financials and 2018 Degradation Margin
While initially it looks surprising for ST Pharm's margin to fade below its 2013 level, it actually shouldn't be. The API manufacturing commerce profitability depends as much on pricing and profitability of each individual products as much as overall capacity utilization of the business. To accommodate the unique commerce from GILD, ST Pharm has expanded capacity over the past 4 years. Without commerce to backfill the drop in revenues from GILD, ST Pharm is essentially generating a similar amount of revenues as it did in 2014/2015 but at substantially lower capacity utilization, driving margins meaningfully lower. This may give us a glimpse of what could chance to CBM's margin over the next few years as GILD's commerce drop off.
Continuing on the volume decline theme, the fact that demand for Gilead's HCV drugs is on a sharp decline is no secret to anyone. After a sharp drop in 2017, patient starts continued to decline at a rapid clip year to date. I hold made some simple reasonable assumptions that illustrate how demand for sofosbuvir API will likely trend over time (exhibit 4). As I will exhibit in the next section, while volume is obviously important, the bigger issue here is pricing.
Exhibit 5. Historical & Projected GILD's sofosbuvir-based HCV patient Starts
Gilead may besides live sitting on a lot of excess sofosbuvir API. I made such conclusion because CBM disclosed a $6.2M take-or-pay payment from a customer in Q4 2017. Given the size of this payment and knowing the need of any customer concentration outside of GILD at CBM, it is highly likely it is related to the minimum volume commitment on sofosbuvir. One should meditate why the customer would rather beget the take-or-pay payment instead of taking delivery of the product. Looking at the other side of the world, GILD besides didn't fully live up to its contracted order with ST Pharm. In September 2016, GILD signed a shrink for KRW152 billion worth of sofosbuvir API supply with ST Pharm to live delivered in 2017. However, in its replete year 2017 report, ST Pharm only booked KRW138 billion of sales from GILD (note that KRW has strengthened relative to USD by ~1% from September 2016 to 2017). This is consistent with my diligence in speaking with industry experts; it is well known GILD is sitting on huge excess amount of the inventories for its HCV drugs. Investors should reckon what would chance if GILD continues to build up excess inventory from its volume commitment with CBM and ST Pharm, and then when there is no more minimum volume commitment (i.e. 2020 for CBM), GILD stops ordering supply for the much smaller market at that point.
Pricing will live the second leg down, with plenty of FDA / EMA-approved or ready suppliers likely selling sofosbuvir API at 1/20th the price
CBM last renewed its agreement with Gilead in Q3 2015 as announced on the earnings muster for that quarter. Recall the outlook for the Gilead's HCV franchise could not live any brighter in 2015 when it became the largest drug in history and with GILD stock at its outright time high. Given how profitable the drug was, GILD's goal at the time was to sell as much as practicable and as quickly as practicable while cost was likely an afterthought. They were besides in a race against time to heal as many patients as practicable before competition shows up. As such, it seems likely that as suppliers, CBM and ST Pharm were getting extremely pleasant cost for supplying the API (see the cost from the US supplier (most likely CBM) below). I conclude not believe the cost CBM receives has changed materially, or at least not to where the market cost is, or else CBM's revenues from Gilead would hold dropped precipitously.
Exhibit 6. Recent Sofobuvir API Transaction Prices from PharmaCompass
While the datapoint from PharmaCompass is interesting, validating it with additional diligence and analysis is important. Based on reported sales from CBM and ST Pharm, and patient starts from Gilead, I was able to rep to an implied cost per kg of $18,000+ (exhibit 7). In order to minimize the limitation of matching intermission market demand to timing of product manufacturing (i.e. drugs need to live made before they rep sold and actual demand could disagree from anticipated demand during manufacturing), I hold used the cumulative sales and volume from 2013-2016 to assess the cost of the API. To live clear, this exercise is meant to corroborate the magnitude of over-earning from the cost picked up in PharmaCompass rather than getting to a precise number. Moreover, they know there is probably at least one more API supplier to GILD based on regulatory filings, so once the sales from the additional supplier / suppliers are included in the numerator, it should shove the cost per kg easily over $20,000.
Exhibit 7. Estimated Sofosbuvir Selling cost by CBM and ST Pharm to GILD
The problem for CBM and ST Pharm is that the market cost for sofosbuvir has gone to ~$1,000 based on PharmaCompass data shown above as well as data presented by Dr. Andrew Hill from University of Liverpool at the IAS 2017 conference (exhibit 8). These prices are derived from import / export of sofosbuvir API in India. Given GILD has outlicensed its HCV drugs to a number of generic companies for sales in 100 low income countries (more on this later), these lower cost transactions likely limn supplies to these generic manufacturers. Thus, CBM and ST Pharm are over-earning on sofosbuvir API by a magnitude of ~20-25x! What happens when the current contracted agreement rolls off or at least when there is no more minimum volume commitment, shifting negotiating leverage back to GILD?
Exhibit 8. Cost per Kg of Sofosbuvir API as Presented by Dr. Hill
We besides know the HCV drugs are no longer as profitable for GILD as they were back in 2015. Based on reported patient starts and HCV sales figures from GILD, the mediocre revenue per HCV patient start in the US has gone from ~$53,000 in 2015 to ~$20,000 in 2018. In Europe, it went from ~$33,000 revenue per HCV patient start in 2015 to ~$12,000 in 2018. Given this trend, it seems natural for GILD to try to lower its costs to recapture some of the economics.
Exhibit 9. Estimated mediocre Revenue per Patient Start
Fortunately for GILD and perhaps unfortunately for CBM and ST Pharm, there are plenty of sofosbuvir API suppliers ready to occupy on this commerce at a much lower price. According to PharmaCompass, there are 25 sofosbuvir API suppliers, many of which already hold active DMF with the FDA and manufacturing sites already inspected by the FDA and/or EMA. The readily available sofosbuvir API suppliers are perhaps the result of Gilead's licensing agreement with generic companies in 2014 to allow low cost HCV drugs to live sold in 100 countries. As these generic manufacturers sourced the essential API to supply the HCV drugs in these 100 countries, they worked with a number of API manufacturers who developed the know-hows and scale to bow commercial grade (quality and quantity) products. These API suppliers need to invest only a minimal amount of money to live ready to occupy on the commerce from Gilead, given they hold already locked down the manufacturing process. conclude you umpire these API manufacturers will sit idle? At a minimum, Gilead will likely expend this as leverage to negotiate a significantly reduced cost from CBM and ST Pharm.
Using ~6,000 kg of sofosbuvir in 2020 / 2021 as projected earlier, the entire sofosbuvir API market to live shared among outright the suppliers to GILD would live ~$6M if priced at $1,000 / kg. At $5,000 / kg, the market is only ~$30M. If CBM were to retain its majority share, the top line would probably live no more than $20M at a cost point that is 5x of current market price, when the market cost will likely continue to decline (see Dr. Hill's presentation earlier showing cost usually goes down over time). This is quite different from what the bulls and the sellside analysts expect, as they appear unaware of the fact that CBM is over earning by ~20x vs. current market cost of sofosbuvir API. recollect sofosbuvir API is a commodity and a commodity producer over time will earn market price. This is just economics 101 which has played out in so many stocks that crashed once the over-earning age is over.
Now I feel quite snug with the conclusion drawn above. But hypothetically, if the cost is indeed much lower than $20,000, there is another problem (if not a bigger problem) for CBM. Since they know the actual sales from CBM and ST Pharm to GILD, if the cost was actually $2,000 per kg instead of $20,000+ as suggested in the analysis above, that would imply the amount of sofosbuvir API Gilead is sitting on is substantially greater than I expected (67 years of inventory, as modeled in Exhibit 10). Thus either route you slice it, it's expansive worry for CBM.
Exhibit 10. Implied Excess Sofosbuvir Inventories at Much Lower Price
CBM's 2018 replete year guidance appears to live more 2H weighted then it was historically (exhibit 11).
Exhibit 11. CBM's Historical and Guided First Half to replete Year EBITDA Contribution.
Assuming for a second that the company can hit its net revenue guidance of currency adjusted -2% to +2% (excluding repercussion from ASC-606), the company silent needs to ramp low margin up significantly from Q1 and Q2 smooth to achieve the replete year EBITDA guidance of $150-160M. Note that Q2 results included a $3.2M shrink termination fee. Excluding that, normalized low margin would hold been 35.9% instead of 37.4% reported. What could drive such enlarge in low margin in 2H to hit replete year guidance? (exhibit 12). How about another sizable take-or-pay payment from its largest customer in Q4 relish last year? While it will provide magnificient profit to low margin (no costs associated with such payment) and allows the company to meet the guidance, it would clearly live a negative sign in terms of where sofosbuvir revenues will trend going forward, as it indicates feeble intermission market demand.
Exhibit 12. Projected 2018 Summary Income Statement Based on Management's Guidance.
On medium term guidance, while CBM besides said it expects low margin to live under pressure as capacity utilization suffers from declining sofosbuvir revenues, it silent expects low margin to trend to lofty 30%'s to 40% over the next few years. But with low margin already at ~mid 30s thus far in 2018 while silent generating meaningful revenue from sofosbuvir (a product with outsized contributing margin), how would CBM rep to lofty 30s to 40% low margin as sofosbuvir revenues continue to decline sharply over next few years? recollect that sofosbuvir revenues carry such lofty margins as a result of its own profitability, as well as allowing CBM to fill up its capacity. To generate lofty 30%s to 40% low margin, CBM would need to supplant the sofosbuvir volume with a collection of exceptionally lofty margin products. As they survey in the financials of CBM and ST Pharm prior to the ramp-up in sofosbuvir revenues, this will live an easy task.
Perhaps the margin compression trend ST Pharm experienced this year is a more likely outcome to CBM's margins over next few years.
CBM besides expects innovator API excluding its largest product to grow double digit over next few years. However, as one can survey below (exhibit 13), CBM has never grown innovator API revenues excluding HCV consistently in the double digits. Even the 8% CAGR is heavily driven by the occasional separate product, where one product from Gilead drove the majority of growth that year but besides the decline in 2017, while the majority of growth in 2018 is expected to live driven by one unique product contributing $20m+ in revenues (from a minuscule amount in 2017) as guided by management. Based on the company's pipeline disclosure, there isn't any one product in the pipeline that can provide $20M in first year of market. This begs the question how likely it is for CBM to grow this revenue line double digit in the next few years as guided by management.
Exhibit 13. CBM's Historical Organic Growth for Innovator API Segment Excluding Sofosbuvir.
Recent sellside bullishness is completely misguided.
On 9/25/2018, Jefferies initiated coverage on CBM with a Buy rating and $75.50 cost target, driving the stock up over 9% since the report. One of the key differentiated views expressed in the report is that revenue from GILD will outperform investors' expectations.
"CBM’s Gilead related revenue seems to hold a disproportionate weighting to Gilead in Europe, where patient starts hold been roughly flat for the past 24 months, and government controlled budgets connote a more protracted treatment/cure curve"
The analyst drew such conclusion because ((i)) CBM is shipping the product overseas; ((ii)) starting 2013, CBM recorded large upticks in domestic exports roughly equaling the size of the growth in its sales to GILD; and ((iii)) Gilead owns a facility in Ireland that serves both EU and other international markets and it uses two manufacturing plants in California to manufacture, package, and label its HCV drugs to Americas and the Pacific Rim. If this were correct, it could live a meaningful pushback to the short thesis. However, based on the actual wording in GILD's 10-K and FDA regulatory filings, it appears the analyst's interpretation here is wrong.
In GILD's 10-K, it says the following:
"We utilize their Cork, Ireland facility for the commercial manufacture, packaging and labeling of their antiviral products. They besides execute attribute control testing, labeling, packaging and final release of many of their products for distribution to the European Union and other international markets."
It clearly stated that the Cork, Ireland facility manufactures, packages, and label outright of its antiviral products. It besides does other functions for other products that are distributed in the EU and international markets. This indicates that while CBM is shipping its API to Ireland, hence it being booked as exports revenues in its financials, the drugs rep shipped back to countries globally for sales. This is a pretty common rehearse for pharmaceutical companies given the tax benefits from having manufacturing done in Ireland, even if the intermission market sales are in the US.
The 10-K besides states the following. It clearly says it does NOT manufacture its antiviral / HCV products in the California plants as suggested by their analyst.
"At their San Dimas, California and La Verne, California facilities, they manufacture AmBisome (in San Dimas), package and label the majority of their commercial products and deal their products to the Americas and Pacific Rim."
This is very different from what the analyst wrote:
"GILD uses its two manufacturing plants in San Dimas and La Verne, California, to manufacture, package, and label its HCV drugs to Americas and the Pacific Rim."
Lastly, based on Sovaldi's chemistry review document from the FDA, it is very clear that Gilead Ireland is the facility that manufactures the drug for sales in the U.S (exhibit 14).
Exhibit 14. Excerpt from Sovaldi's Advisory Committee Meeting Chemistry Review Document
The analyst besides lauded the Halo Pharma acquisition. It used CBM's acquisition of PharmaCore as a precedent of a successful acquisition although no information was actually provided by the analyst on why PharmaCore was a value creating transaction. Moreover, CBM has provided very limited information on Halo, a private company, which makes it difficult to construct a proper assessment. My prefatory assessment is that other than its ability to wield controlled substance, the service provided by Halo is quite commoditized. Interestingly, it appears according to John Kreger from William Blair on the conference call, CBM has stayed away from finished dosage commerce in the past so this deal was rather of a surprise.
"Steve, you guys hold opted to not live in the finished dose commerce in the past. Why conclude you umpire this is now the birthright time to sort of hotfoot into a more integrated approach to the business?"
Perhaps the judgement CBM has been gun-shy in entering the finished dose commerce is that it did try to enter the commerce through an acquisition but failed massively, something most bulls are probably not conscious of. In November 2010, CBM acquired 51% of Zenara Pharma, a company focused on the formulation of final dosage contour products, for $20M. Pursuant to the stock purchase agreement, Cambrex was expected to acquire the remaining 49% in early 2016 at a value based on a weighted combination of a multiple of 2015 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”) and cumulative EBITDA for the years 2011 through 2015. I imagine at the time, they were expecting the commerce to grow and will pay more than $20M for the other 49%. Apparently, EBITDA in 2011-2015 did not fade so well that CBM preemptively negotiated to acquire the other 49% for $2.7M in 2014. Soon thereafter, CBM recorded ~$17M restructuring charges in 2015 and 2016 and eventually sold the entire commerce for $2.8M in 2017. Bulls should hope that CBM does much better with the $425M Halo pharma acquisition than it did with ~90% loss in Zenara.
Insiders are Voting with their Feet
Steven Klosk, CEO of CBM is unloading his holdings rapidly over the past few months. Soon before the announcement of the Halo Pharma acquisition, he started unloading a significant number of shares. In less than three months from June to September, he decided to exercise 220,000 options that don't expire until October 2019 to October 2021 in multiple transactions via a 10b5-1 goal [Link, Link, Link, Link]. And, as if the sales under the goal was not sufficient, he besides sold another 80,000 common shares he owned outright in August [Link]. outright together, he sold over 70% of his holdings [Link]. The recent large sales in such a short age of time are in contrast to his selling of 136,100 shares in 2017 and 69,600 shares in 2016 (exhibit 15).
Exhibit 15. Steven Klosk's Open Market Activities in 2016 and 2017
Shawn Cavanagh, COO of CBM, decided to unload 86,250 shares (similarly a combination of early exercise of options and common shares) from May to August [Link, Link]. This is the largest sale he has done over the past 13 years with the exception of the sale of 113,749 shares in November 2015 (exhibit 16), before the partake dropped ~40% within three months.
Exhibit 16. Shawn Cavanagh's Open Market Activities since 2006
Samantha Hanley, CBM's common counsel, sold outright her holdings in August 2018 [Link]. Ms. Hanley has two other open market trades, both of which cleaned out her entire holdings. She exited her entire holding in November 2015, the very time Shawn Cavanagh did prior to a 40% cost decline [Link]. In June 2017, she besides exited her entire holding [Link] before stock dropped 27% within five months. Overall, Ms. Hanley clearly has killer instinct when it comes to getting ahead of stock drawdown.
Tom Vadaketh, now ex-CFO of CBM, resigned from the company abruptly on August 8, 2018 with less than one month of transition age [Link]. The collective actions of the senior management team clearly conclude not paint a promising picture for the stock.
With sofosbuvir revenue expected to decline significantly in 2018 as guided by management on the Q4 2017 earnings call, EBITDA is expected to live down ~$20M or 12% at midpoint of guidance given merge shift (CBM guided overall net revenue to live -2% to +2%). As CBM has already guided sofosbuvir revenue to live down significantly (but what's the magnitude?!) again in 2019, it would not live surprising for EBITDA to decline again. For a moment, let's assume CBM hits its EBITDA midpoint guidance of $155M of EBITDA but that it declines 12% again in 2019 (I umpire there is the potential for an gruesome surprise on what the sofosbuvir revenues will live in 2019, given excess inventory sitting at GILD and the fact that CBM has not quantified the magnitude of decline in the minimum volume commitment that year), then they are looking at ~$136M in EBITDA for CBM before including Halo in 2019. The company disclosed that Halo generated $27M of EBITDA in 12 months ended 6/30/18. So let's assume it grows a little over 10% to $30M in 2019, then CBM should hold a 2019 EBITDA of ~$166M, lower than what it was in 2017 without Halo ($175M) after spending $425m on the acquisition. At the current enterprise value (remember to add the amount paid for Halo as the 6/30/18 poise sheet does not comprise that), this translates into a 15.3x 2019 EBITDA multiple. While most people expend Catalent as the closest comp to CBM, it only trades at 14.3x CY2019 EBITDA without the issue CBM has with the HCV revenues. (exhibit 17)
In fact, given CBM is over-earning at such a degree with its sofosbuvir API and the fact that there is no minimum volume for 2020, one probably shouldn't apply a multiple on that profit stream. If one removes the sofosbuvir revenue and profit by either assuming the EBITDA margin reverts back to 2013 smooth or based on the degradation of margin experienced by ST Pharm, then CBM 2019 EBITDA including Halo would live $94M to $116M, implying the stock trading at ~22x-27x 2019 EBITDA! (exhibit 17)
If one values CBM using 2019 EBITDA excluding HCV and CTLT's multiple, CBM should live worth $33-42, down 38-52%.
Exhibit 17. Summary of Projected 2018 and 2019 EBITDA and Valuation
We hold outright seen this movie countless times where the market takes a company's near term performance and extrapolates it into perpetuity. While CBM clearly hit jackpot and generated massive earnings and cashflow over time from GILD's HCV drugs, what created the fortune for CBM in the past is going to live the antecedent for its downfall now. GILD's stock cost has already gone from ~$120 in mid-2015 to <$70 in 2017 as its HCV franchise declined. Based on consensus expectations, ST Pharm's operating income is expected to decline over 90% in 2018 as sales to GILD dropped significantly. For CBM, I umpire history will iterate itself, allowing for a little patience.
CBM starts winning much larger amount of unique commerce compared to its historical track record, particularly if it lands another commerce similar sized to GILD's HCV drugs.
CBM acquires lofty attribute businesses at below market multiple despite a very heated M&A market in the space.
Disclosure: I am/we are short CBM.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I hold no commerce relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
No result found, try unique keyword!The products of these efforts comprise multi-disciplinary, physics-based, simulation software, and a compute environment that exploits the power and anticipated exponential growth of lofty performance . ...
Press Release Summary:
SunSite Complete determines the solar availability without a manual, site assessment and extracts property measurements. The dataset is partnered with a customers’ design software and a shadow analysis report is provided or implemented into their workflow.
Original Press Release:
EagleView’s Latest Innovation Standardizes shadow for the Solar Industry
Data from EagleView identifies solar availability and precise roof measurements
Eagle View Technologies (“EagleView®”), the leading provider of property intelligence for the government, insurance and commercial sectors, has announced the launch of its newest product innovation, SunSite Complete™. This unique solution offers a fast, accurate route to determine solar availability through an objective solar access calculation without manual intervention.
SunSite Complete provides precise roof measurements and identifies solar availability – outright before solar professionals need to set foot on a property. This advanced dataset, in combination with a customer’s preferred design software, can live delivered as a detailed shadow report, or integrated directly into their workflow. Setting a unique criterion in shadow analysis, SunSite Complete allows solar design professionals to create quicker, more efficient designs at the module smooth for optimal system performance.
“We’re excited to interpolate this never-before-seen solution to the solar industry,” states EagleView CEO, Rishi Daga. “SunSite Complete enables workflow efficiencies at every stage of a solar project’s life cycle. From project proposal and system design, to system production and project completion.”
Using proprietary methods, EagleView extracts property measurements and features from high-resolution aerial imagery to deliver SunSite Complete. This eliminates the need for multiple site visits, manual data input or double checking for user error, replacing existing workflow with an objective and automated solution for accurate results.
EagleView will live launching SunSite Complete at Solar Power International (SPI) September 24 – September 27, 2018 in Anaheim, California.
For more information about EagleView’s products and solutions, gratify contact Melissa Mazurek at firstname.lastname@example.org or (585) 444-2504.
About EagleView EagleView is the leading provider of high-resolution aerial imagery, property data analytics and structural measurements for government agencies, insurance carriers, roofing contractors and energy utilities. Using patented image capture techniques, 3D aerial measurement software and machine learning processes, EagleView helps customers admit questions related to millions of properties throughout the world. With a 60-petabyte library of oblique and orthogonal Pictometry® aerial imagery dating back to 2001 and the capacity to process tens of thousands of roof measurement reports per day, EagleView enables organizations to reduce territory visits and adopt faster, safer and more cost-effective workflows. For more information, contact (866) 659-8439 or visit http://www.eagleview.com.
Thomas Industry Update