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000-455 exam Dumps Source : High Volume Storage Fundamentals V3

Test Code : 000-455
Test name : High Volume Storage Fundamentals V3
Vendor name : IBM
: 73 real Questions

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IBM IBM towering Volume Storage

the usage of IBM Spectrum Scale for storage in IBM Cloud inner most | killexams.com real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

IBM Spectrum Scale is a resilient software-defined storage that can be deployed as towering performance file storage or a cost optimized enormous-scale content repository. IBM Spectrum Scale is deployed on the most worrying businesses on the earth for both excessive performance and towering scale. parley with https://www-03.ibm.com/techniques/storage/spectrum/scale/ for extra details. elements that rate Spectrum Scale arrogate for persistent volume storage consist of: performance, scalability, assistance lifecycle administration, quota, encryption, compression, availability, and snapshots.

Storage for Containers

some of the main materials inside any cluster is storage. earlier than which you could deploy most Kubernetes-primarily based purposes, you ought to first create storage from the underlying infrastructure. This provisioned storage allows for for persistence of an application’s facts. besides the fact that children, for an application to devour this storage, you hold to additionally create a quantity. Volumes are used to rate requests on behalf of an application to the provisioned storage. you can create volumes from Spectrum Scale which are used as persistent storage for functions.

This establish up describes the way to configure IBM Spectrum Scale as a storage backend for POD volumes in IBM Cloud deepest clusters. while there are dissimilar how to employ a persistent quantity from IBM Spectrum Scale as a POD’s volume in IBM Cloud inner most, this establish up describes the way to employ the Hostpath and NFS drivers.

before you start

In both situations(Hostpath and NFS), you necessity a IBM Spectrum Scale cluster and a persistent extent. that you would be able to besides create the customized utility used during this publish the usage of following steps.

  • Create a IBM Spectrum Scale cluster and designate several nodes as IBM Cloud private worker nodes. in this illustration, dghostrhel2, dghostrhel3 and dghostrhel4 are IBM Cloud inner most employee nodes
  • [root@dghostrhel2 ~]# mmlsclusterGPFS cluster information========================GPFS cluster name: dgcluster.dghost1GPFS cluster identity: 13644380956435301453GPFS UID area: dgcluster.dghost1Remote shell command: /usr/bin/sshRemote file copy command: /usr/bin/scpRepository classification: CCR Node Daemon node identify IP address Admin node identify Designation— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1 dghost1 192.168.122.ninety six dghost1 quorum-manager2 dghost2 192.168.122.124 dghost2 quorum-manager3 dghost3 192.168.122.eighty dghost3 quorum-manager4 dghost4 192.168.122.217 dghost4 quorum-manager9 dghostrhel1 192.168.122.221 dghostrhel110 dghostrhel2 192.168.122.222 dghostrhel211 dghostrhel3 192.168.122.223 dghostrhel312 dghostrhel4 192.168.122.224 dghostrhel413 dghostrhel5 192.168.122.225 dghostrhel5

    2. Create a extent on the gpfs0 filesystem and mount it on the /gpfs/gpfs0 course.

    [root@dghostrhel1 ~]# mmlsfs gpfs0 flag value description— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —-f 8192 minimal fragment dimension in bytes-i 4096 Inode size in bytes-I 16384 oblique block size in bytes-d nsd1;nsd2 Disks in file equipment……-A yes automatic mount choice-o no one further mount alternatives-T /gpfs/gpfs0 Default mount point— mount-priority 0 Mount precedence

    three. Create the custom utility. The parameter values and file names which are used during this instance are besides utilized in later steps.

    3a. Create a listing named alpine4gpfs.

    3b. Create the software script in the alpine4gpfs directory. The script creates a directory within the Docker container and generates random number of data in it. name the file number_generator.sh

    #!/bin/sh

    #/gpfs is the set up listing from hostrandomnum=$(( ( RANDOM % 20 ) + 1 ))iodir=/gpfs/$HOSTNAME_$randomnumif [[ -f /gpfs/thisisgpfs ]]thenecho “Writing facts into gpfs dir…”#Sleep for some time·sleep 10mkdir $iodirfor i in `seq 1 $randomnum`dodd if=/dev/urandom of=/$iodir/FILE$i bs=512K count=10 &>/dev/nullmd5sum /$iodir/FILE$i > /$iodir/FILE$i.md5date > /$iodir/FILE$i.datedoneelseecho “No GPFS quantity..Exiting”fi

    be aware : The above script assessments for /gpfs/thisisgpfs file interior the container before generating records. hence create the file ‘thisisgpfs’ interior fileset or nfs export which will be used as persistent extent for the sample software.

    3c. Create the dockerfile in the alpine4gpfs directory.

    FROM alpineMAINTAINER Your_nameADD number_generator.sh /number_generator.shRUN chmod +x /number_generator.shENTRYPOINT [“/number_generator.sh“]

    3d. Create the customized utility. From the alpine4gpfs directory, flee these instructions:

    docker login mycluster.icp:8500docker build -t alpine4gpfs .docker tag alpine4gpfs mycluster.icp:8500/admin/alpine4gpfsdocker thrust mycluster.icp:8500/admin/alpine4gpfs

    be aware : The above command upload the photo 'alpine4gpfs' in the 'admin' namespace. In case 'admin' namespace does not exist, The photo upload fails with the oversight message ’unauthorized: authentication required’. One will necessity to create the mandatory namespace for successfully uploading the graphic.Steps to create the ‘admin’ namespace :Login to IBM Cloud private >>control>>Namespaces>>click on on “Create Namespace” then Create namespace with name ‘admin’

    the employ of Storage from Spectrum Scale with IBM Cloud private by way of the Hostpath driver

    prerequisites for this instance:

  • IBM Spectrum Scale Cluster
  • IBM Cloud private V2.1.0
  • that you could choose to employ some or total IBM Spectrum Scale customer nodes as a IBM Cloud deepest worker nodes. If not total IBM Cloud deepest employee nodes are IBM Spectrum Scale consumers, then you definately necessity to employ a node tag in case you employ volumes that you simply create from IBM Spectrum Scale. which you can create volumes by using the directory or fileset commands from the IBM Spectrum Scale File equipment. creating volumes through the employ of fileset is advisable because it lets you partition the file tackle to permit administrative operations at a finer granularity than the complete file device. For extra tips about fileset, contemplate https://www.ibm.com/guide/knowledgecenter/STXKQY_4.2.3/com.ibm.spectrum.scale.v4r23.doc/bl1adv_filesets.htm.

    1. Create the fileset that the persistent volume makes employ of

    1a. Create a fileset that is termed ScaleCfCHostpath:

    [root@dghostrhel2 ~]# mmcrfileset gpfs0 ScaleCfCHostpath

    The output seems enjoy this:

    Fileset ScaleCfCHostpath created with id 2 root inode 33547.

    1b. link the fileset to the volume:

    [root@dghostrhel2 ~]# mmlinkfileset gpfs0 ScaleCfCHostpath -J /gpfs/gpfs0/ScaleCfCHostpath

    The output looks enjoy this:

    Fileset ScaleCfCHostpath linked at /gpfs/gpfs0/ScaleCfCHostpath

    1c. monitor the fileset details:

    [root@dghostrhel2 ~]# mmlsfileset gpfs0

    The output appears enjoy this:

    Filesets in file tackle ‘gpfs0’:identify fame Pathroot Linked /gpfs/gpfs0ScaleCfCHostpath Linked /gpfs/gpfs0/ScaleCfCHostpath

    The fileset ScaleCfCHostpath is mounted on the /gpfs/gpfs0/ScaleCfCHostpath course. This direction is used to create the quantity in IBM Cloud inner most.

    2. Create the Persistent quantity

    2a. Log in to the IBM Cloud deepest management console.

    2b. From the menu, click Platform > Storage.

    2c. click on Create PersistentVolume.

    2nd. Enter the Persistent volume details. For this instance, employ the following values:

    identify — spectrumscalestorageLabel — storageValue — spectrumscaleCapacity — 1Unit — GiAccess Mode — ReadWriteManyReclaim coverage — RetainStorage class — HostpathKey — direction ; cost — /gpfs/gpfs0/ScaleCfCHostpath

    which you can give these values through the employ of the fields and lists in the Create original PersistentVolume window as proven in these photos:

    Persistent extent advent 1/3 Persistent extent creation 2/3 Persistent quantity advent three/three

    2e. click on Create.

    2f. From the PersistentVolume tab, assessment the repute of the original persistent extent. earlier than you can employ the persistent volume, its fame ought to be available.

    Persistent volume particulars

    three. Create the Persistent quantity declare

    3a. click the PersistentVolumeClaim tab.

    3b. click Create PersistentVolumeClaim.

    3c. Enter the volume details. For this illustration, employ here values:

    identify — spectrumscalevolumeStorage Requests — 512Unit — MiAccess Mode — ReadWriteManyVolume Selector Label — storageValue — spectrumscale

    3d. click Create.

    3e. From the PersistentVolumeClaim tab, review the status of the original persistent quantity declare. The persistent quantity declare may still hold a standing of bound, which capacity that the persistent volume pretense is certain to the persistent extent that incorporates the label storage=spectrumscale and meets its storage request necessities.

    Persistent extent claim particulars

    click PersistentVolume and assessment the alterations to the persistent volume ‘spectrumscalestorage’.

    Persistent extent details

    that you could contemplate that the persistent extent pretense ‘ spectrumscalevolume’ is bound to the persistent extent ‘spectrumscalestorage’. The persistent volume declare ‘spectrumscalevolume’ is accessible to an application or pod.

    4. installation an application that makes employ of the brand original quantity claimA container is created for each sample of the application. every container has a storage volume, and the volume contains a listing that outlets the script’s random data.

    4a. From the IBM Cloud deepest console, click the menu and then click Workloads.

    4b. From the Workloads page, click on Jobs > Batch jobs.

    4c. click on Create Job.

    4d. Enter the job particulars. You ought to supply values for a yoke of parameters:

    On the ordinary tab, specify the job name and variety of instances:

    name — workloadwithalpineCompletions — 1

    On the Container Settings tab, specify the container name and the photo to rate employ of.

    name — alpinecontainerImage — mycluster.icp:8500/admin/alpine4gpfs

    On the Volumes tab, specify here values:

    name — spectrumscalevolumeVolume — spectrumscalevolumePath — /gpfs

    4e. evaluate the workloadwithalpine job particulars. The workloadwithalpine software with an attached extent should still be operating.

    Batch Job particulars Workload details

    in case you click on the utility identify, that you may contemplate that situations of the workloadwithalpine software is created.

    Pod particulars Container details

    every instance of the software creates a listing of the identical name in connected extent. facts generated via the purposes is seen on Spectrum Scale purchasers, as proven in the following example:

    [root@dghostrhel2 ScaleCfCHostpath]# pwd/gpfs/gpfs0/ScaleCfCHostpath [root@dghostrhel2 ScaleCfCHostpath]# ls -1thisisgpfsworkloadwithalpine-kt4sn_17

    IBM storage items glean an additional NVMe booster shot | killexams.com real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

    IBM dropped its quarterly wave of storage products this week, focusing above total on latency-lowering NVMe technologies and managing becoming volumes of unstructured statistics.

    IBM adopted through on its roadmap to develop support for conclusion-to-conclusion NVMe from application servers to storage arrays with the launch of a brand original Storwize V7000 equipment. The Storwize V7000 is the primary IBM midtier gadget so as to add back for NVMe-oF, offering a Fibre Channel (FC) alternative.

    different IBM storage items launched or upgraded comprise Spectrum Virtualize, Spectrum discover, Storage Insights, IBM Cloud demur Storage, a FlashSystem A9000R array and a TS1160 commercial enterprise tape pressure.

    "this is just one other instance that we're in the yr of NVMe," spoke of Scott Sinclair, an analyst at commercial enterprise strategy neighborhood. "Storage providers are embracing the benefits of NVMe technology to provide greater storage performance and extra efficient records access."

    Eric Burgener, an IDC analyst, talked about or not it's vital for IBM to prolong NVMe support throughout its portfolio. IDC research predicts that, through 2021, techniques that employ NVMe in region of SCSI as a foundation technology will generate at the least half of exterior simple storage revenue.

    "we've got had total this infrastructure modernization occurring and the original workloads that should be managed comprise lots of precise-time great records analytics that you just simply definitely can't flee on SCSI," Burgener noted. "There are workloads that completely must hold NVMe in the mix."

    IBM's FlashSystem 900 enabled NVMe over InfiniBand early this 12 months, and the FlashSystem 9100 shipped in August with conclusion-to-conclusion NVMe help.

    IBM Storwize V7000 all-flash array IBM Storwize V7000 is a midrange all-flash array that helps conclusion-to-end NVMe. NVMe over Fibre Channel assist

    IBM now helps the NVMe over FC transport selection in storage products that employ its Spectrum Virtualize software, together with the original Storwize V7000. consumers that purchased IBM's SAN extent Controller, FlashSystem 9100 and V9000 or Storwize V7000F after September 2016 can permit NVMe over FC via a nondisruptive supersede of the IBM Spectrum Virtualize code. IBM plans to add back for NVMe over Ethernet through Spectrum Virtualize in 2019, in accordance with Eric Herzog, chief advertising officer and vice president of worldwide storage channels at IBM.

    Like many IBM storage items, the brand original Storwize V7000 ships with Spectrum Virtualize application to convey enterprise data capabilities to IBM and third-birthday party storage systems. These services comprise snapshots, replication, at-rest encryption and synthetic intelligence-based mostly information tiering.

    The Storwize V7000 now contains hardware-based mostly compression and encryption to reduce the performance hold an upshot on of those features. Herzog eminent IBM uses further processor chips in its original FlashCore Modules to allow the hardware-based at-relaxation records encryption and compression.

    a original NVMe-primarily based 19.2 TB FlashCore Module additionally serves to raise the density of the Storwize device. The all-flash Storwize V7000 offers a maximum raw means of 461 TB per control enclosure and as an abominable lot as 32 PB in a four-approach cluster. scintillate power faculty options are four.8 TB, 9.6 TB and 19.2 TB, and IBM claims it might probably convey 5-to-1 statistics compression.

    Enabling off-the-shelf NVMe SSDs

    Storwize ships with IBM's original 2.5-inch FlashCore Modules by way of default, however consumers can choose trade typical NVMe-based mostly SSDs or add HDDs from third-celebration providers. Herzog eminent IBM's FlashCore Modules present higher performance, diminish latency and an extended seven-12 months warranty than open-market SSDs which are customarily guaranteed for 3 to 5 years.

    Burgener spoke of IBM's shift to enable using off-the-shelf NVMe SSDs "in reality shows that they don't consider there may be that a distinguished deal of a efficiency inequity associated with custom hardware anymore."

    "in case you necessity to flee inline information features, enjoy compression and encryption, you could finish this with reduce latencies on those FlashCore Modules. but when you might be not interested in that, then the NVMe SSDs are in reality a much less costly alternative. That, to me, is their future path," Burgener said.

    also amongst original IBM storage items is a brand original 18 TB customized scintillate module that can double the maximum potential of its FlashSystem 900. a original 15.36 TB scintillate module boosts storage density in IBM's high-end DS8880F arrays concentrated on the Unix, Linux and mainframe markets. a original DS8880 zHyperLink card improves latency.

    IBM additionally added an entry-degree configuration of the FlashSystem A9000R device designed for cloud storage.

    Spectrum learn product aimed at 'records oceans'

    IBM's original Spectrum learn product is designed to automate the cataloging of unstructured facts via common metadata and newly created custom metadata to facilitate facts analytics, governance and storage optimization. The software deploys as a VMware digital tackle and contains an API to enable data analytics, compliance and different applications to access the metadata.

    "overlook information lakes. you've gotten now obtained oceans of information. how are you going to leverage that ocean of data to glean cost out of it?" Herzog noted.

    using customized metadata tags, Spectrum find can support to pace the facts scanning procedure, chiefly with compliance functions that necessity to search via probably billions of data, Herzog pointed out. With analytics workloads, facts scientists often ought to work with storage directors to prepare the statistics, and Spectrum learn could automate and streamline the system, he introduced.

    "The quickest array in the world may not support in case you don't know what your information is," wrote Steve McDowell, an analyst at Moor Insights & approach, in an email. "IBM's Spectrum learn will resolve real-world issues in records management. I consider they will contemplate others emulating IBM on this entrance."

    Spectrum learn is in accordance with technology from IBM research and supports unstructured information in IBM Cloud demur Storage tackle and IBM Spectrum Scale. IBM plans to add support for Dell EMC Isilon subsequent year.

    more updates to IBM storage products

    An update to IBM's free cloud-based mostly Storage Insights useful resource management device adds capabilities to create and schedule custom-made studies and diagnose SAN bottlenecks. AI technology can learn storage network gridlock, triggering an alert for an IBM support technician to contact the customer. the first version of Storage Insights grew to be often obtainable ultimate February.

    IBM's pay-for-what-you-use Storage Utility offering can now permit twin-device excessive-availability configurations at a starting monthly fee it's only 20% greater than the cost to lease a single system. The IBM Storage Utility offering additionally added back for a data protection product, the TS7760 virtual tape library.

    Updates to IBM storage products aren't confined to flash. the original entry-stage TS1160 commercial enterprise tape pressure improves efficiency; supports write as soon as, ready many (WORM) for clients in regulated industries; and boosts faculty to twenty TB, a doubling of the prior TS1150 model. IBM's TS3500 and TS4500 libraries assist the brand original tape power.

    IBM Cloud demur Storage besides provides original WORM capacity for comparatively cheap mirrored and centred dispersal mode configurations. The product besides supports more concurrent employ situations with a 50% boost within the maximum variety of back vaults per system.

    subsequent 12 months, IBM plans to steer NVMe in its Cloud demur Storage, because the supported servers that flee the software add NVMe-primarily based scintillate drives. NVMe over Ethernet steer is on IBM's 2019 roadmap for Spectrum accelerate up, with the FlashSystem A9000/R, and Spectrum Virtualize.

    FlashSystem A9000/R is additionally anticipated to rate employ of AI technology to automate statistics deduplication and ease capacity management next yr.

    also in 2019, IBM plans to extend its AI reference architectures with an Nvidia choice, structure on the power AI reference architecture the trade unveiled in June.

    The latest updates to IBM storage items additionally protected SAP HANA certification for its FlashSystem 9100 and original Storwize V7000, Spectrum give protection to, Spectrum replica records administration and Spectrum Virtualize. IBM licensed FlashSystem 9100 with Epic electronic healthcare facts management application this yr and plans to add aid for Meditech next yr. IBM besides expects to extend solutions aid to blockchain subsequent yr.


    IBM To acquire purple Hat And extra | killexams.com real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

    IBM announced on Sunday, 10/28, that it is buying Linux open supply utility trade purple Hat for $34 B. IBM is buying total issued and spectacular typical shares of purple Hat for $a hundred ninety per share. purple Hat is to swirl into a allotment of IBM’s hybrid cloud company as a discrete unit and IBM says that it'll maintain the independence and neutrality of crimson Hat’s open source structure roots.

    red Hat’s CEO Jim Whitehurst goes to continue to steer the company after the acquisition and joins IBM’s senior management team. IBM and purple Hat hold had a long-time alliance with red Hat items, including Linux and Kubernetes, that are utilized in IBM’s hybrid cloud application and features company. In may additionally 2018 both companies reached an agreement to target the hybrid cloud sector through know-how and features integration.

    IBM has supplied aid for pink Hat Ceph storage and Gluster storage. possibly this assist will continue after the acquisition. In a cell convene with trade analysts on Monday, 10/29, representatives from both corporations stated that red Hat’s OpenStack investments will proceed.

    Assuming approval with the aid of purple Hat shareholders the acquisition is anticipated to be finished within the 2d half of 2019.

    IBM made additional bulletins in the terminal week about enhancements to their scintillate reminiscence items. These had been:

    1) a brand original Storwize V7000 device that promises 2.7x optimum throughput Storwize V7000 Gen2+ with 24 scintillate drives and application compression compared with Storwize V7000 Gen3 with 24 FlashCore Modules using hardware compression for records-pushed workloads when using compression and extends conclusion-to-conclusion NVMe capacity into the IBM Storwize family. the brand original Storwize V7000 tackle begins as all-flash and presents vast expansion capabilities. handy tier AI-based management immediately moves records to essentially the most acceptable media tier in response to employ patterns.

    2) main growth of lower latency and higher throughput Non-volatile recollection express (NVMe) textile aid across the enterprise’s storage portfolio. Updates to IBM Spectrum Virtualize allow NVMe over fabrics (NVMe-oF) assist for Fibre Channel through an simple nondisruptive application improve for FlashSystem 9100 and a lot of installed FlashSystem V9000, Storwize V7000F/V7000, SAN quantity Controller methods, and VersaStacksolutions that employ these storage techniques. a brand original 16Gbps adapter provides Fibre Channel NVMe-oF aid for FlashSystem 900, which has supported Infiniband NVMe-oF due to the fact that February 2018. IBM is additionally outlining plans to add NVMe skill to IBM Cloud demur Storage software in SDS Configurations in 2019.

    three) up to double the maximum storage density and constructive scintillate capacity (after compression) for FlashSystem 900, which could aid to reduce costs and additional simplify storage solutions. original high-capability 18TB module supports up to 44TB helpful means after compression, compared with 22TB for venerable module.

    four) For DS8880F, storage programs aiding mainframe-based IT infrastructure, original custom scintillate provides as much as double optimum scintillate capacityDS8882F: 737.3TB compared to previous 368.6TB; evolution varies by using model.within the identical footprint. An supersede to their zHyperLink options helps pace application performance by way of significantly reducing both write and read latency.

    5) a brand original entry degree configuration is now available for IBM FlashSystem A9000R, supplying a forty % diminish entry checklist fee but no compromise on scalability. IBM has introduced the skill to rate employ of each excessive-availability HyperSwap and catastrophe recuperation capabilities at the identical time to boost records availability. ultimately, IBM plans to increase FlashSystem A9000/R in 2019 with AI applied sciences from IBM research to simplify capability management with deduplication.

    IBM additionally delivered IBM Spectrum discover. based on IBM, “in response to know-how from IBM research designed to give statistics perception of unstructured data for analytics, governance and optimization, IBM Spectrum find immediately enhances and then leverages metadata—data about your records—to give these capabilities. IBM Spectrum learn impulsively ingests, consolidates, and indexes metadata for billions of data and objects out of your facts ocean, enabling you to greater without difficulty profit insights from massive amounts of unstructured information. IBM Spectrum find helps unstructured statistics in IBM Cloud demur Storage and IBM Spectrum Scale with plans to additionally assist Dell-EMC Isilon in 2019.

    The IBM acquisition of purple Hat will tremble the cloud storage community and perhaps antecedent further acquisitions by way of different corporations within the house to remain aggressive. IBM is making a huge thrust for cloud infrastructure in addition to helping original metadata management capabilities and a flash-first storage architecture.




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    000-455 exam Dumps Source : High Volume Storage Fundamentals V3

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    Test name : High Volume Storage Fundamentals V3
    Vendor name : IBM
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    Plains total American Pipeline LP (PAA) Q3 2018 Results - Earnings convene Transcript | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

    Plains total American Pipeline LP (NYSE:PAA) Q3 2018 Earnings convene November 6, 2018 5:00 PM ET

    Executives

    Roy I. Lamoreaux - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    Jeremy L. Goebel - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    Chris Chandler - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Analysts

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC

    Tom Abrams - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

    Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC

    Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.

    Michael Blum - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC

    Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.

    Dennis P. Coleman - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

    Jerren Holder - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

    Tristan Richardson - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

    Keith Stanley - Wolfe Research LLC

    Patrick C. Wang - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.

    Sunil K. Sibal - Seaport Global Securities LLC

    Elvira Scotto - RBC Capital Markets LLC

    Operator

    Good day, everyone, and welcome to the PAA and PAGP Third-Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. Today's convene is being recorded.

    At this time, I would enjoy to swirl the convene over to Roy Lamoreaux. gratify retrograde ahead.

    Roy I. Lamoreaux - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Thank you, Ann. marvelous afternoon, and welcome to Plains total American's third-quarter 2018 earnings conference call. coast presentation for today's convene can be organize within the Investor Relations word and Events section of their website at plainsallamerican.com.

    During their call, we'll provide forward-looking comments on PAA's outlook. needful factors that could antecedent actual results to disagree materially are included in their latest filings with the SEC. Today's presentation will besides comprise references to non-GAAP monetary measures such as adjusted EBITDA. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP monetary measures to the most comparable GAAP monetary measures can be organize within the Investor Relations monetary Information section of their website.

    We finish not intend to cover PAGP's results separately from PAA since PAGP's results directly correspond to PAA's performance. Instead, we've included schedules in the appendix of their coast presentation that hold PAGP's specific information. gratify contemplate PAGP's quarterly and annual filings with the SEC for PAGP's consolidated results. besides included in the appendix are some additional reference materials for today's call.

    Our convene will be hosted by Willie Chiang, Chief Executive Officer; and Al Swanson, Executive Vice President and Chief monetary Officer. Additionally, Harry Pefanis, President and Chief Commercial Officer; Jeremy Goebel, Senior Group Vice President, Commercial; and Chris Chandler, Senior Vice President, Strategic Planning and Acquisitions; and other members of their senior management team are present and available for the mp;A portion of today's call.

    With that, I will now swirl the convene over to Willie.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Thanks, Roy. marvelous afternoon to everyone, and thank you for joining their call. Let me originate by hitting the towering points of the information they released today.

    As outlined on coast 3 and as Al will argue in more detail, this afternoon they reported solid third quarter results that meaningfully exceeded their expectations. Their results for the quarter reflect continued growth from their fee-based segments and overperformance in their Supply and Logistics segments or S&L. They anticipate both of these trends to continue through the fourth quarter and into 2019 as reflected in their updated and increased 2018 guidance.

    Al will provide an update to their preliminary guidance for 2019, which reflects continued momentum in S&L and remains in line with their prior expectations for fee-based growth after adjusting for their recent sale of a 30% interest in the BridgeTex Pipeline, which was executed after they provided their preliminary guidance for 2019.

    We've characterized 2018 as a year of execution. So far, this year, we've delivered results ahead of their guidance and they remain on track to achieve their deleveraging objectives within the first half of 2019. We're excited about what the future holds and they believe that we're well-positioned to continue to execute to the profit of their stakeholders.

    The fundamentals for their industry are constructive. Global exact continues to grow, and the U.S. leads the world as the largest and most visible source of growing liquids supply. In this admiration and as illustrated on coast 4, they anticipate raw oil production growth across multiple North American basins over the next several years, and their asset ground and trade model are positioned to benefit.

    Specifically in the Permian, they continue to anticipate production growth to be in line with their year-end exit rate forecast of plus or minus 3.5 million barrels a day, and they anticipate similar annual volumetric gains in Permian production for the next several years. Additionally, they anticipate increased activity in other key producing regions including the Eagle Ford, Rockies, Williston and Mid-Continent, which should drive increased flows to key U.S. market centers including Cushing, Oklahoma. This is driving exact for original takeaway solutions that their existing system is well-positioned to serve through a combination of capacity optimization and capital-efficient expansion opportunities.

    To that nigh and as illustrated on coast 5, they continue to progress options to increase capacity on their Red River and Diamond Pipeline systems. Additionally, the Capline owners are finalizing plans to purge the line and are advancing plans to reverse the pipeline. The potential expansion of their Diamond Pipeline capacity would be coupled with a project to extend the pipeline a relatively short distance to connect into Capline. These potential projects leverage existing systems to provide efficient solutions at attractive returns and would be incremental to their current guidance and capital programs.

    Meanwhile, their Permian transportation assets remain the largest growth driver for their business. As shown on coast 6, they anticipate their full-year 2018 middling Permian tariff volumes to increase more than 30% or approximately 1 million barrels a day. In total, they anticipate full-year Permian tariff volumes of slightly less than 3.8 million barrels a day. The impacts of the partial BridgeTex sale and timing of completion activity are partially offset by the earlier in-service timing of Sunrise.

    For the fourth quarter, they anticipate a meaningful uplift in Permian tariff volumes, supported by the early placement into service of their Sunrise expansion project, as well as a continuation of Permian production growth and multiple bottlenecking expansion projects.

    With respect to the early commissioning of their Sunrise expansion project, I'd enjoy to publicly acknowledge the arduous work, creativity and coordination of their team in making this happen. By bringing Sunrise into service early, they were able to add much needed capacity to the market. They besides continue to rate marvelous progress on the poise of their capital program. Construction of their Cactus II pipeline is on track with partial in-service targeted for late third quarter 2019 and plenary service by April of 2020.

    Additionally, their multiple gathering system expansions and intra-basin debottlenecking projects are advancing on schedule, along with complementary expansions of their terminalling and storage capacity footprint throughout the basin. They besides continue to rate meaningful progress on the ExxonMobil JV. The project will be anchored by ExxonMobil, and they continue to work with third-party shippers on additional commitments. They are besides finalizing commercial agreements and working through joint venture documents.

    As announced earlier, Lotus Midstream, which recently acquired the Centurion pipeline system and additional midstream assets from Occidental Petroleum, including a terminal in Midland, has signed a letter of intent to participate in the joint venture. We're pleased to hold Lotus unite the project and ogle forward to sharing additional updates on the JV project in the near future.

    With that, I'll swirl the convene over to Al.

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Thanks, Willie.

    As Willie mentioned, their third-quarter results exceeded their expectations primarily due to strong performance in their S&L segment. The strong S&L performance is primarily the result of favorable regional basis differentials in Canada and in the Permian, as well as the one-time $20 million dollar audit recovery related to a profit sharing arrangement in their NGL business.

    As shown on coast 7, they reported fee-based segment adjusted EBITDA of $561 million reflecting year-over-year growth of $16 million or 3%. Year-over-year Transportation segment adjusted EBITDA growth of $25 million was driven primarily by Permian volume growth, partially offset by Transportation segment asset sales, and a diminish in facility – Facilities segment adjusted EBITDA was primarily due to asset sales as well.

    As shown on coast 8, they increased 2018 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $150 million to plus or minus $2.55 billion, driven by their strong third-quarter performance and their expectation for stronger than previously anticipated results in their S&L segment through the poise of the year.

    I will besides point out that their updated 2018 guidance incorporates the impact of their sale of a 30% interest in BridgeTex Pipeline, which closed on September 30, generating net proceeds to PAA of $862 million. They reported a gain on the sale of $210 million. The sale resulted in lowering their 2018 fee-based guidance by approximately 1%, or $25 million.

    Our updated 2018 implied DCF guidance is approximately $1.84 billion, with approximately $1.68 billion available to common unitholders, resulting in implied DCF per common unit of $2.31. This represents a $0.49 per unit, or 27% increase over 2017. Retained cash flow for 2018 is expected to be approximately $810 million.

    I will besides note that they increased their 2018 maintenance CapEx by $15 million, or 7% percent, to $240 million due to their faculty to complete more work during the year than previously anticipated and their determination to replace, instead of repair, certain segments of pipeline. These projects are allotment of their ongoing commitment to ensure safe and trustworthy operations.

    In addition to 2018 guidance, I will provide an update to their preliminary 2019 adjusted EBITDA guidance. On their August earnings call, they discussed directional fee-based guidance for 2019 of 14% to 15% growth over 2018 guidance of $2.225 billion, which equated to approximately $2.55 billion. And they besides indicated that their 2019 S&L performance would likely outperform 2018 S&L guidance, which was $175 million, result in total adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.7 billion.

    The BridgeTex sale delineate a reduction to the directional guidance previously provided. Additionally, they intend to continue to gather and incorporate data from producers regarding their 2019 CapEx plans, as well as completion timing. And we'll provide more definitive guidance for 2019 on their February call; but based on their current assessment, they are updating their preliminary fee-based guidance for the BridgeTex sale and their current S&L outlook as follows.

    We anticipate 2019 fee-based segment adjusted EBITDA to increase plus or minus 12% year-over-year, which equates to plus or minus $2.46 billion. This is essentially unchanged from their previous 14% to 15% fee-based growth guidance as adjusted for the BridgeTex sale.

    We anticipate total of this fee-based growth to be driven by their Transportation segment, and their Facility segment is expected to be flat to slightly down as 2018 results thus far reflect a degree of outperformance relative to their initial 2018 guidance. They besides anticipate 2019 S&L will likely outperform their 2018 guidance plus or minus $350 million. Directionally, that would region total adjusted EBITDA at plus or minus $2.8 billion.

    Although they hold the potential for some upside in their S&L segment in 2019, they anticipate this segment will return to a lower flat of adjusted EBITDA in 2020 as they anticipate both Permian and Canadian differentials to narrow as original pipeline capacity comes into service. As a reminder, to the extent they are able to generate outsized S&L earnings, they intend to employ such proceeds to either reduce debt or fund capital.

    Before handing the convene back over to Willie, let me provide a brief update on their deleveraging plan. As illustrated on coast 9, at September 30, PAA had a long-term debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.9 times and a total debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 4.0 times. These metrics are closer to their targets, and with the total debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio being down 1.5 turns from a year ago.

    As Willie mentioned, they anticipate to complete their deleveraging blueprint in the first half of 2019. I will besides note that their combined 2018-2019 capital program remains unchanged at $2.6 billion. However, they anticipate the 2019 capital program of $650 million to increase closer to the $1 billion level, primarily driven by expected progression of the ExxonMobil JV project in addition to sanctioning other original projects. They blueprint to provide an update on their capital plans in conjunction with updating their full-year 2019 guidance on their February call.

    As they advance closer to completing their deleveraging plan, they wanted to share some thoughts on how they blueprint to manage their distribution going forward. Multiple factors the board and management will consider are summarized on coast 10 and center on their commitment to maintain a significant flat of monetary and operational flexibility, support metrics that are consistent with mid-BBB credit ratings over time, and retain a flat of cash flow that limits, if not eliminates, the necessity to issue common equity to fund routine growth capital programs. With these factors in mind, upon completing the deleveraging plan, they anticipate to be in a position to increase the distribution potentially as soon as the first quarter of 2019 distribution payable in May.

    With that, I will swirl the convene back over to Willie.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Thanks Al.

    As you can see, it continues to be a productive time for their organization, and as summarized on coast 11, we're real pleased to be making meaningful progress towards each of these 2018 goals. Before opening the convene for questions, I wanted to acknowledge and thank Greg Armstrong, Co-Founder and 26-year CEO of Plains, retired as CEO efficient October 1. Greg, Harry and the entire team hold built an incredible trade over the years, and I want to thank them for the faith that they placed in me and the efforts to rate certain they had a smooth transition.

    As they ogle forward, they acknowledge the recent industry cycle and the steps we've taken to position the company for the future. They continue to invest in their trade through the cycle; while sharpening their focus on operations excellence, portfolio optimization, and continue to advance multiple initiatives to further improve their organization for the future. As a result, they believe that Plains is emerging as a stronger entity with an exceptional asset footprint in key North American growth areas.

    We anticipate their deleveraging blueprint to be complete in the first half of 2019. This should provide us significant monetary flexibility, enabling us to self-fund the equity portion of their routine growth capital programs, while delivering attractive DCF unit growth over time.

    All that said, they remain intensely focused on the safe, trustworthy and liable execution of their trade plan, which they anticipate to drive strong results in 2019, and will continue to position the partnership well for 2020 and beyond.

    I'll swirl the convene over to Roy.

    Roy I. Lamoreaux - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Thanks, Willie.

    Now, as they enter the mp;A session, gratify restrict yourself to one question and one follow-up question, and then return to the queue if you hold additional follow-ups. This will allow us to address the top questions from as many participants as practical in their available time this afternoon. Additionally, Brett Magill and I blueprint to be available this evening and tomorrow to address additional questions.

    Ann, we're now ready to open the convene for questions.

    Question-and-Answer Session

    Operator

    Thank you. We'll retract their first question from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC

    Good afternoon.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Hi, Jeremy.

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC

    Hi. I just wanted to start off with Sunrise here and contemplate – it seems enjoy you've got 350,000 barrels a day capacity online in the quarter. And was just wondering if you could provide a bit more detail, I guess, on how that's flowing. And you said, I think, there was 220 of takeaway from there, 120 into Cushing, 100 to other Valero refineries. Is that what you're seeing touching now or is there a higher level? Anything you can expand upon this and how much the EBITDA ramp you'll still contemplate in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter here.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Harry, you want to cover that?

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    Sure. So, started commissioning Sunrise in October, plenary operations with the generators in November. Initially, they thought sort of takeaway capacity would be in around 200,000 barrels a day or 250,000 barrels a day. It's probably around 300,000 barrels a day to 350,000 barrels a day. They developed a few more markets out at Wichita Falls area. So the pipeline can high-tail about 500,000 barrels a day. But that's sort of the takeaway capacity that they contemplate today. Of course, their goal is to try to maximize throughput and try and find additional takeaway options.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    So, Jeremy, an obvious initiative for us is to continue to find those additional markets downstream Wichita Falls. So, using the map between 500 a capacity to where they are today is the opening set going forward.

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC

    That's very helpful. Thanks. And I want to just touch on S&L here real quick, and I know it's a smaller allotment of the business, but the number stepped up a bit there, and just trying to glean their hands around what this looks like. And just wondering, is this benevolent of more front half of the year weighted as far as what you contemplate for S&L and you benevolent of hoist the steer (18:42) yoke quarters higher? Is this more raw or Canadian NGL? There are some wide dips up there. What can you sketch as far as the composition? And when you glean the super-sized earnings, you talked about reducing debt or funding capital or increasing the dividend, any thoughts to maybe putting it back into buybacks when it's benevolent of one-time in nature?

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Four questions. So, were you talking about 2019, Jeremy, on your particular – Jeremy, maybe I'll – retrograde ahead, I'm sorry.

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC

    Yeah. I mean, that was for 20 19 particular, just trying to glean a feel for the steer that being front and halfway, but besides just philosophically in S&L, could buybacks advance into the picture there or anything else you can share on those thoughts?

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    So let me start off with the S&L numbers, and then Harry and Al can jump in here as they contemplate fit. When they started the year, I arbitrator they total shared that they did not anticipate the margins to glean or the differentials to really widen until the back half of the year. So they benevolent of went into the year with that thought that fourth quarter primarily they may be able to capture some. And I arbitrator what's actually advance to fruition is obviously the differentials widened out for most of the year, and they were able to snare additional raw differentials primarily around the Permian fourth quarter. There's besides some Canadian raw differentials that we've been able to capture. And if you arbitrator about the differentials in S&L, that happens when there are constraints in pipelines.

    So their view of 2019 is there's a limited amount of capacity – takeaway capacity that comes online really until their Cactus pipeline starts up late third quarter. So there are opportunities there to be able to capture some arbitrage in the S&L segment, but once 2020 hits and there's a lot of pipelines, as Al pointed out during his prepared remarks, they don't anticipate certainly the raw differentials in the Permian to persist after that. So this is really an opportunistic epoch of time that allows us to capture some of that value.

    On the flexibility of buybacks, I don't want to glean into commitments on what we're going to do, but I arbitrator the message you should retract from this is by having this monetary flexibility it gives us a number of different options to be able to bolster the company for the future.

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC

    Great. And just to clarify the one point on S&L for 2019, it sounds enjoy its prevalent ratability across the year with seasonality as we've seen in the past. It's not weighted towards the front first half versus the second half?

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    Well, no, not necessarily. I mean, if you just ogle at the curve on the Permian, its second quarter is probably the weakest quarter of the year. Fourth quarter, the market sort of pricing in and some of the pipes are going to be in service and it's compressed. So there's definitely going to be a curve to the Permian differentials. If you ogle at Canada, the differentials are wider in the first few months of the year than they are for the poise of the year. So there's obviously some contemplation that some of the turnarounds are – or other impacts the market might not weigh in the market as much as I finish next year. So it's a mixed bag, but it's probably more heavily weighted to the first half of the year than the second half of the year.

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC

    Thanks.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    And Jeremy, don't forget, they still finish hold a seasonality to the NGL portion of their business. But as Harry said, you've got that raw differential overlay on that, you'll still contemplate some seasonality between first and fourth quarter based on the NGLs.

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    And Jeremy, I'd just add one follow-up on the point Willie answered, on using S&L to buy back. Clearly, maybe at some point in the future, but their first focus is poise sheet. I did mention that they anticipate their 2019 capital program to increase, and clearly those will be the first priorities with any excess S&L profits.

    Jeremy Bryan Tonet - JPMorgan Securities LLC

    Understood. appreciate the color. I'll glean back in the queue. Thanks.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Thanks.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Tom Abrams with Morgan Stanley.

    Tom Abrams - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

    Thanks, guys. Was looking at your page 5 graph of total the – map of total the pipes, and just wondering if your comments on Permian to Houston line, looking for additional partners, if that implied that maybe some of the other projects out there that are besides looking for additional partners may nigh up combining with your joint venture?

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Jeremy, why don't you retract that?

    Jeremy L. Goebel - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah. I would say, first and foremost we're looking at – they hold an attractive project with Exxon supply, Exxon demand. They hold liquidity from Plains and Lotus. They hold enough to rate the project retrograde on their own. We're looking for third-party shippers. They really can't comment on speculative concepts about merging projects, but honestly as you've seen with Plains historically, we'll always ogle at opportunities. But first and foremost, we're advancing the project as we've said on the call, and we're looking for third-party shippers at this time.

    Tom Abrams - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

    Got it. And I don't know if I glean a follow-up or not, but I wanted to query about a lot of raw coming into the benevolent of Corpus – I'm sorry, the Houston area. Your friends in Magellan talking about a connection to Corpus. Is there a necessity to glean more raw from Houston over towards St. James?

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Wait. Those are two different questions.

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    The differentials would explain you, yes.

    Tom Abrams - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

    I'm trying to arbitrator of your – the additional projects that are in your likely future.

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    Yeah. So, I mean, the differentials, LLS is about $8 and change over WTI and East Houston's $6 – or $2, $2.50 differential, so there's clearly exact in St. James.

    Jeremy L. Goebel - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    And some of that is grade-dependent as well, enjoy the Canadian barrels are looking for a home to glean flee in St. James, and so that would be the most efficient way to glean there. So I arbitrator there's two components to the projects, and we're excited about both of them.

    Tom Abrams - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

    Great. I'll jump back in queue and advance back on asset sales later. Thanks.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Thank you.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde to next to Shneur Gershuni with UBS.

    Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC

    Good afternoon.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Hi, Shneur.

    Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC

    How is it going, guys? Just a yoke of questions here, I'll try not to maintain it to 11 parts, but in terms of the capital being invested for future growth, how much capital is being placed into service into 2019 that will only partially profit 2019 and roll into 2020? And how much of your current CapEx impacts only 2020? I mean, said differently, can they contemplate a material increase in 2020 fee-based EBITDA as well given the suite of projects that you've FID'd and are working on?

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Shneur, this is Willie. I don't want to glean into talking about 2020 because there's a lot of road between now and then. I arbitrator that the message you can retract is we've teed up a number of projects here that aren't currently sanctioned, particularly around the Diamond and the Capline reversal. I arbitrator the takeaway should be we've got a number of projects that we've got in the queue to drive growth going forward in 2020-plus and they finish hold a number of projects that are kicking in for 2019 with the Cactus II project starting up late Q3, which they should glean a plenary pop in 2020. So there's no shortage of projects or growth that they have.

    Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC

    Okay. equitable enough. And as benevolent of a follow-up there, in sort of the other projects that you were considering. I believe at your Analyst Day you talked about a Wichita Falls extension that could sort of retract you total the way to St. James as well as a bullet pipe on the – or potentially, I guess, theoretically at Cactus III. hold those ideas – are they still in the hopper, are they developing? I was just wondering if you can give us some color around that.

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    Wichita Falls – they actually laid out two alternatives, one to extend to Cushing, alternatively to extend to the east and connect into the Red River system which could then tie into Longview, and Energy Transfer has got a pipeline system from Longview into Baton Rouge. So those projects are still actively being advanced. Cactus III is, I would say, backburnered given the fact that we're allocating their resources to the Exxon project.

    Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC

    All right.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah. Shneur. I'm sorry, just another – this is Willie. Just one more thing to add. There's a lot of talk of original lines going from A to B. One of the things, their strategies is how finish they retract their existing system and advance up with hopefully a shorter term solution and certainly a more cost-effective solution. So, for us, there may be more connecting the dots between existing pieces of their system to accomplish the identical versus some of the other pipes that are just complete announcements of original projects, if that rate sense.

    Shneur Z. Gershuni - UBS Securities LLC

    No, that totally makes sense. And I'll jump back in the queue, thank you for the color, and maybe query about the Exxon pipeline afterwards.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Thanks, Shneur.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Christine Cho with Barclays.

    Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.

    Hi, everyone. For the Capline reversal, is this going to be from Patoka down or just from that extension in Memphis? And how much time would you necessity to reverse it and finish your connection? Like, if you were to finish an agreement tomorrow with total the parties, how much time finish you necessity to reverse and commercialize? Are they talking months or years?

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Greg.

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    No, it's an 18- to 24-month process. If they started today, probably closer to 24 months. They hold to purge the line and they necessity some equipment. They necessity a diminutive bit of extension of the pipeline from Memphis to Collierville. So it's – maybe the south nigh of the system could be reversed in a 18-month timeframe. North nigh would be a diminutive bit longer though. It's not something that can be accomplished in months. It will probably be in phases, with the south nigh of the system placed in service on a faster timeline.

    Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.

    And when you yelp south, are you talking from Memphis South or enjoy what's south? Okay.

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    Yeah. It's Memphis South.

    Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.

    Okay. And then when you yelp – and then the north allotment is from Patoka total the way down.

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    Correct.

    Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.

    Okay.

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    Connecting carriers necessity some work too at Patoka so it's not total in their control.

    Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.

    Okay. And then with your – the Permian enjoy long haul pipes that you guys have, how should – with them running full, how should they arbitrator about the risk to volumes in excess of the MVCs touching over to some of the NGL to raw pipeline conversions that hold been announced for next year? Are there any protections or mechanisms in region to maintain the volumes on your system in your view? And then to the extent that that happen, how should they arbitrator about the impact on Transportation and S&L, enjoy how does that skew?

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    I arbitrator the best way to arbitrator about it is, their guidance reflects their view on how volumes high-tail given total the relative projects that are forecasted to advance in service next year.

    Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.

    Okay.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    And Christine, don't forget there's different kinds of commitments, right? So you've got minimum volume commitments, which you addressed. There's besides acreage dedication, which would be dedicated to their system. And a lot of the contracts we've got as we've chatted before are longer tenured or hold longer tenures to them. So there's nothing that falls off a cliff in the next number of years.

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    Yeah. And in their legacy – they hold some legacy systems that are just common carrier pipes. You can walk up and ship today or not ship today. So their guidance reflects their view on what happens with those volumes.

    Christine Cho - Barclays Capital, Inc.

    Fair enough. Thank you.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Michael Blum with Wells Fargo.

    Michael Blum - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

    Hey, marvelous evening, everybody. Just one question on Capline reversal. From Patoka, would you be sourcing cumbersome barrels from Canada so that allotment would just sort of hold to sync up with Line 3, or could you besides source barrels, I don't know, directly from the Bakken so those could be light sweet barrels that advance sooner?

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    Well, it will be driven by a Canadian – by access to Canadian barrels. That's why I had mentioned earlier that it is relative on connecting carriers. And the timeframe are probably longer than a reversal of the Memphis portion south. But it could conceivably receive volume from Bakken sources as well.

    Michael Blum - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

    Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then second question on S&L, basically I just wanted to know, is there any change in your hedge position either for Q4 2018 or for 2019? In other words, what I'm trying to glean at is, what gives you the aplomb to establish out the guidance you had for both years? Should they assume that that's effectively locked in?

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    I would yelp that their guidance reflects their hedge position and their view of the market for the unhedged portion, and they obviously are always active in the market, so it's not the identical position that it was terminal call.

    Michael Blum - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

    Okay. Thank you.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Jean Ann Salisbury with Bernstein.

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC

    Hi. Just a yoke of quick ones for me. I arbitrator you said that $25 million came out of guidance for 2018 from BridgeTex, which I guess would just be for the fourth quarter. It seems a diminutive high. Can you just benevolent of spell out, I guess, what the estimate that you had coming out of 2019 guidance from it was?

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    If you just walked through the math, principally the $25 million was BridgeTex. The pipe is obviously nigh to full, with logistical constraints. If you retract the $2.55 billion to the $2.46 billion, that's principally BridgeTex coming out. The vast majority of it. So you had the numbers right.

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC

    Okay. A diminutive higher than that. Thank you. And then it seems enjoy once the pipelines to the Gulf are on from the Permian, that will be a bit more of a draw for Permian barrels then Cushing will be, which I arbitrator had a pretty long-term differential expectation in the forward curve. Can you benevolent of give us an estimate for how much of the flow on basin actually enjoy doesn't retrograde total the way to Cushing to glean Cushing pricing and maybe won't be at risk once there is a more direct path to the goal?

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Jean, this is Willie. That's Jeannie and this is Willie. That's a really tough question to reply because as barrels retrograde down, depends on what happens to Cushing and what the arbitrage is, unless Harry has a better answer, I arbitrator it's really hard. These are definitely barrels at risk, but it's arduous to establish a number on it.

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    There are barrels at risk, but there's a certain drag from the Mid-Continent for Permian Basin volume. If you just ogle back historically, there hold been times when the Permian has been – Midland has been a significant premium to Cushing, and volume still moved. So it's arduous to pinpoint exactly, but there's definitely refiners in the Mid-Continent that reckon on Permian Basin crude.

    Unknown Speaker

    And they besides have...

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC

    Okay.

    Unknown Speaker

    ...contracts for that movement, and they hedge some of that movement for ourselves as well.

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    Correct.

    Jean Ann Salisbury - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC

    Great. Thanks a lot. That's total for me.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Colton Bean with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company.

    Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.

    Afternoon. So, with the Canadian volumes looking enjoy they ticked up there quarter-over-quarter, is some portion of that tied to S&L barrels touching on Milk River and Aurora, and to capture that light spreader or just any clarity there?

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    The Canadian volumes are mainly tied to production in Canada, so it's not drip in volume that impacts their Canadian.

    Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.

    Got it. And then just can you give us an update on your thoughts around a potential extension of Saddlehorn to capture PRB growth? And I guess, pending Prop 12 – 112, does that impact the thought process around that extension?

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    We already hold a pipeline that can source volumes out of Powder River into Saddlehorn.

    Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.

    Got it. And if the proposition were to retrograde ahead, I mean, is there anything you would necessity to finish to increase the capacity to maybe repurpose Saddlehorn to be primarily a Powder River pipeline?

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    Saddlehorn has committed shippers, so it couldn't totally be a Powder River pipeline. But there are – they finish hold the capability of expanding – extending capacity into Saddlehorn, and there's some enhancements that could be accomplished at Saddlehorn as well. So...

    Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.

    Got it.

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    ...we arbitrator we're in pretty marvelous position to capture some of the pinch volume increases in the Powder River.

    Jeremy, finish you hold anything else you want to add that?

    Jeremy L. Goebel - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    No. I arbitrator they hold multiple options. So, today, barrels high-tail from that region through Saddlehorn on a spot basis. But longer term, there's a possibility to expand with the existing footprint with pumps, and then if there's more demand, you could loop segments on the line to create additional capacities.

    So I arbitrator depending on market demand, and we're watching capital budgets just as you are, and their customers exact on the system will optimize their capital spend relative to exact from the Powder River, but we're actively watching it. And we're honestly contracting some of the capacity in their pipelines in that region to enhance liquidity in their Guernsey terminal to rate certain they hold as many shots as feasible to glean those barrels.

    Colton Bean - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.

    That's helpful. Thank you.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to (38:04) with Credit Suisse.

    Unknown Speaker

    Hey. marvelous afternoon. I just want to start off with the potential distribution increase. Don't want to glean too out of us here, but with the increase coming, and I realize you can't yelp much on specifics, but can you provide any sort of blueprint on how you choose what that first increase looks enjoy and what the mechanism looks enjoy going forward, just whether or not you increase it quarterly or annually from there?

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Al, why don't you retract that?

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah. And clearly, they can't provide specific numbers. The thoughts were total denoted on that slide. If you recall, back in August in 2017 when they made the reduction, they did rate a comment that they would consider either starting with minuscule – just prevalent benevolent of increases or a step change or a combination of both. They haven't made any decisions clearly as they glean closer to that epoch of time. We'll ogle at the approach.

    We are leaning towards going to a more annual basis versus a quarterly basis, which was denoted on the coast as well. But as far as specific numbers now, clearly, they want to focus on maintaining liquidity and commercial flexibility, operational flexibility, credit metrics supporting mid-BBB and to rate certain they minimize the necessity for equity capital markets. And so those are total the tenets that they benevolent of dial through their thought process, assuming it is for the first quarter payable in May, but that's really total they could share.

    Unknown Speaker

    Okay. No, that's fair. And we've heard a lot this quarter from your peers just around major raw export expansion projects, really tailored to VLCCs. snoopy where you guys are on that. Seems enjoy a natural extension to a lot of your pipelines. But just snoopy if you arbitrator there's maybe already a risk of overbuild here on the export side.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    I'll rate a comment, and then Chris Chandler, I'd enjoy to – maybe you can ensue up.

    Chris Chandler - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Sure.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Clearly there are a lot of deepwater VLCC projects announced. These are total big, stout projects, significant expense. When they looked at their Cactus pipeline, they had been trying to ogle at not only the pipeline takeaway but combining that with a dock. And what we've organize is that different shippers are interested in different docks.

    So their view is that they can glean the pipe – they can glean the barrels to the coast and there is a number of different – there's plenty of docks that are being built and they can – they should hold flexibility to glean access to total those. And if it's a strong return and it's advantageous for us, they may participate. Otherwise, we're going to benevolent of watch and contemplate what happens.

    Chris Chandler - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah. The only thing I'd add is they finish believe that one or more single point mooring projects finish rate sense going forward as raw oil exports continue to grow. It's, of course, the most efficient way to load a great volume of raw oil for export, and it's an area, enjoy Willie said, that we're closely monitoring.

    Unknown Speaker

    Great. appreciate that color. Thanks, everyone.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Hey, before they retrograde on to the next caller, I want to clique back just to clarify. They are seeing a diminutive more volume advance across the border through their cross-border pipelines enjoy Milk River. It's not a huge volume, but there is more volume that comes down in through Milk River into their Western Corridor system. Next question.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Dennis Coleman with Bank of America.

    Dennis P. Coleman - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

    Yes. marvelous evening to everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess, if I can just start with the S&L and thrust a diminutive bit more. Al, you talked about sort of normalizing that volume, I guess, for lack of a better description, into 2020. Anything you can yelp in terms of how they should size that? Obviously, there are some impacts that you talked about in terms of the debottlenecking projects, and I guess Canada plays a stout role there as well. What hold you assumed in terms of the projects coming on there from competitors that you've talked about?

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah. They wouldn't try to establish a specific number for 2020 S&L out yet. What we're trying to finish is just rate certain – obviously, they started this year at $100 million for S&L, slowly took it up to $175 million, now $350 million. They arbitrator the $350 million is going to be there and likely exceed it in 2019. We're just trying to rate certain that anybody that's modeling that segment recognizes that as total these Permian pipes glean built, it gets sized down. There may be some of the Canadian opportunities retrograde a diminutive longer, but they are probably a diminutive less material for us. So they would arbitrator you'd want to rate certain you model a meaningful reduction from the $350 million when you're looking at 2020.

    Dennis P. Coleman - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

    Okay.

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    That's how we're going to flee the company. As far as how we're thinking of leverage, distribution coverages, we're going to assume we've got a nice opening to capture it. It's helping us fund projects, reduce debt, but we're going to flee the company in humor with a fairly modest amount of S&L contribution for 2020, and how we're thinking about things.

    Dennis P. Coleman - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

    Great. That's very helpful. Maybe just switching. There was a comment that St. James volumes were up in the quarter, and it seemed perhaps that it was – that's more raw by rail. But any expectation that that would continue to ramp up and any comments that you can give there?

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    I mean, they arbitrator we'll continue to contemplate strong rail exact in 2019 at St. James. I arbitrator it's largely driven by the pipeline constraints. And as pipeline constraints ease, rail lines will likely subside some, but we've had constant trade for a long time at St. James, it's just been accelerated due to the pipeline constraints.

    Dennis P. Coleman - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

    So, finish you hold excess capacity there? Is it something that could continue to ramp?

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    Oh, yes, they hold additional capacity.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    The restrict has been rail car access to rails. That's been what's been the limiting point through 2018 and, of course, prices – fixed prices and additional rail cars hold been directed to the markets that necessity it.

    Dennis P. Coleman - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

    Okay. Okay. Thank you.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Jerren Holder with Goldman Sachs.

    Jerren Holder - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

    Thanks. What is the latest on your potential to increase takeaway capacity of the Bakken and Canada?

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    Out of the Canadian Bakken or out of the Bakken and Canada?

    Jerren Holder - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

    Bakken and Western Canada.

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    Okay. So their footprint is not significant in the Bakken. It's mainly consists of some smaller pipes and rail takeaway. So, obviously, they try and retract edge of the limited infrastructure they have, but we're not going to be one of the parties that develops a significant takeaway project out of the Bakken.

    Unknown Speaker

    We finish hold two cross-border connections, Rangeland and Wascana that they are working on how finish they glean more capacity on those two systems, but the volumes are fairly limited.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah. And ideally that would be a pipeline system would be bidirectional where you could high-tail items into the Canadian infrastructure if you had higher exact there or into the Bakken infrastructure if there was higher exact in the Bakken.

    Greg L. Armstrong - Plains total American GP Holdings LLC

    And that's in the Wascana piece, on the Rangeland piece, being bidirectional.

    Jerren Holder - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

    Yeah. And then follow-up on the asset sales. Where are they following BridgeTex? Are you guys looking to finish more? Are there any outstanding that are just waiting to nigh at this point?

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Chris Chandler, why don't you retract that one?

    Chris Chandler - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Sure. Jerren, this is Chris. Their goal for 2018 was to achieve $700 million in asset sales, and they hold exceeded that goal. They will continue to evaluate their portfolio going forward based on valuation and strategic fit. But they don't feel any pressure to sell additional assets. If something changes there, we'll provide updates as warranted.

    Jerren Holder - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

    And no pending deals that haven't closed yet or anything enjoy that?

    Chris Chandler - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    That's correct.

    Jerren Holder - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

    Okay. Thank you.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Tristan Richardson with SunTrust.

    Tristan Richardson - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

    Afternoon, guys. Just on the intrabasin side and debottlenecking. Can you give an update on your Wink to McCamey project as you sort of set the table for Cactus II?

    Jeremy L. Goebel - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah. That's one of multiple projects. They hold capacity in the Wink and then out of Wink. That will be on sometime within the terminal month of this year or first month of next year. But more importantly, they necessity capacity in the Wink as well, because there's a lot of production that's coming online in the Western Delaware Basin. And what that does is it frees up capacity in the Midland on their historical basin system. So it will give us a lot of capacity, just having the first leg on, to back maintain that allotment of the basin and debottlenecked. So it creates additional tariff barrels from us even if they don't hold the ease of Cactus on at that time, Cactus II.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Tristan, this is Willie. You should arbitrator of the Wink to McCamey piece, never humor – I was thinking of something else. Jeremy had it on.

    Tristan Richardson - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

    Okay. Thank you.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Journey retrograde from Wink over to Midland and then down to McCamey. And so by basically taking the hypotenuse of the triangle, you just – it makes it easier from the flow perspective.

    Tristan Richardson - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

    It's helpful. Thank you. And then just quickly, with respect to the preliminary 2019 steer on the fee-based side and the feasibility you hold on tariff volumes as some of these long hauls advance online, could you talk about generally where you contemplate tariff volumes in 2019 as it's presumed in your preliminary guide?

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    We don't intend to provide a volume to retrograde with the EBITDA until February. So, ogle forward, we'll provide that detail then.

    Tristan Richardson - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

    Okay. Thanks, Al.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research.

    Keith Stanley - Wolfe Research LLC

    Hi. marvelous evening. Just wanted to clarify on the Transportation segment guidance, implies a pretty strong acceleration in Q4, quite a bit more than what you've seen the past few quarters. So it's up $40 million, and then you're losing BridgeTex, so it looks enjoy it's up really more enjoy $65 million versus the third quarter. Is that just Sunrise causing a stout debottlenecking in the system, or any other color or drivers to arbitrator about for Q4 and the nice uptick there in Transportation?

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah. This is Willie. Clearly, Sunrise is a piece of it. But as they stated in the prepared comments, there clearly is an expectation for volumes – production volumes to increase. They saw a slight lull in completions in pushing barrels back. They anticipate a lot of that to advance in the fourth quarter, so that's definitely a component of the growth piece.

    Keith Stanley - Wolfe Research LLC

    Okay. And then it looks enjoy about a $500 million reduction in short-term debt. I'm assuming that's just hedge collateral coming back to you. And is that a sustainable flat to model going forward?

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    What I would yelp is a diminutive bit of the flips between long-term and short-term had to finish with the BridgeTex cash closing at the nigh of the quarter. So short-term was understated relative to probably what they could hold borrowed under the identical metric, i.e., hedged inventory and margin. But they hold seen their margin numbers advance back to what I would yelp is a pretty prevalent level, which is what they expected. Clearly, they had done a lot more hedging in – for the first eight to nine months of the year versus the fourth quarter, as they hold mentioned. So what I would explain you is that probably below what you would anticipate if you ogle out six months or nine months from now due to the BridgeTex timing and the cash that came in from that.

    Keith Stanley - Wolfe Research LLC

    That cash was received in early October though, right? Or was it Q3?

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    It was in Q3. Yeah.

    Keith Stanley - Wolfe Research LLC

    Okay. Thank you.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Patrick Wang with Baird.

    Patrick C. Wang - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.

    Hi. marvelous afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. As you ogle toward resuming distribution growth in 2019, how does or doesn't preferred equity sojourn into the picture as a source of funding?

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Well, today, clearly their view is that we're – when you ogle at next year, the equity portion of what their CapEx requirements will be would be funded principally with retained cash flow. They hold leeway left on the growth basket as far as the rating agencies for hybrid or preferred character of securities, but their thought in 2019 would be that they would not raise any preferred to fund the capital program. Clearly, if their capital program grows or they contemplate acquisitions in today's valuation for their common units, they would ogle to employ preferred.

    Patrick C. Wang - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.

    Got it. That's helpful. And then a bigger picture in the Permian. It looks enjoy raw takeaway relief will advance before original gas takeaway, so that when you arbitrator about flaring levels between now and 2020, how finish you arbitrator about the risk of a gas-induced activity constraints on the oil side?

    Jeremy L. Goebel - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    This is Jeremy. That is a risk. There's besides fractionation risk on the NGL side. They feel enjoy gas is probably a diminutive bit ahead of fractionation risk, but we're monitoring total the above. I arbitrator their view and I think, as Harry pointed out, volumes is predicated on a presumption that producers are not going to – they're going to continue to flee rigs at a much faster rate than completions until they contemplate a line of sight to debottlenecking of infrastructure. So they feel that a ramp towards the second half of next year and completions as there's a line of sight into oil, gas and NGL takeaway. But there is interim solutions just enjoy there are with oil with some of the others, flaring being one. There's other ways to high-tail NGL. So we're paying attention total of them, but I arbitrator their guidance reflects their view of the completion cadence they contemplate for next year.

    Patrick C. Wang - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.

    All right. Great. Thanks for that detail.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Sunil Sibal with Seaport Global Securities.

    Sunil K. Sibal - Seaport Global Securities LLC

    Yes. Hi. marvelous afternoon, guys, and thanks for total the clarity. I just wanted to retrograde back to the credit metrics that you laid out on coast 14. So when I ogle at that target numbers on the extreme right, the leverage metrics that you lay out there, that's consistent with a BBB rating that you're looking for – or mid-BBB rating that you're looking from rating agencies correct?

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    You involve their targets? Yeah. They are. But rating agencies hold adjusted benevolent of how they ogle at things over the recent past. But their intent is to, over time, rate certain they glean their leverage and their performance to where they will be mid-BBB again. That won't be instantaneous, they view, but they are consistent. But clearly, the bar has changed over the terminal few years.

    Sunil K. Sibal - Seaport Global Securities LLC

    And then within that EBITDA calculation, how finish you benevolent of arbitrator about S&L contribution? Is that pretty much nailed out or it's enjoy a minimum flat benevolent of number?

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    In how they arbitrator of leverage metrics?

    Sunil K. Sibal - Seaport Global Securities LLC

    Yes.

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah. No. I mean, we'll comprise S&L in the metrics because clearly some of the debt that is in the numerator side of the calculation is there to generate S&L profitability, so you really can't liquidate the EBITDA without taking the debt out, right? That won't rate any sense. But the reality of it is, is that in allotment of what the comment would arbitrator -trying to advise, and look, they recognize S&L is going to drop in 2020, so they can't sit and assume that we've got to dial that into their thinking of their leverage, that it's going to revert back to a more prevalent or lower level. And so we're not going to exclude it, but we're going to hold their eyes open and the headlights on with admiration to the fact it's going diminish in 2020. I hope that makes sense.

    Sunil K. Sibal - Seaport Global Securities LLC

    Yeah, it does. Thanks for that. And then, one – benevolent of a follow-up from previous question. When they arbitrator about nigh to your 4 million barrels of tariff volumes in Permian and then you ogle at your MVCs over the next, say, two to three years, could you give us a sense of a cascading – or impact of this MVCs rolling off over the next two to four years in Permian?

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah. No. I mean, clearly a substantial amount of their long haul is supported by MVCs. Clearly when – on the gathering side you got more acreage dedications probably supporting that. They finish not hold any material roll-off on great contracts on their MVCs over the next few years.

    Sunil K. Sibal - Seaport Global Securities LLC

    Okay. Got it. Thanks guys.

    Alan P. Swanson - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Yeah.

    Operator

    We'll retrograde next to Ross Payne with Wells Fargo.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Hi, Ross.

    Operator

    Mr. Payne, were unable to hear you. You might try checking your mute button or picking up your handset.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    He must hold left...

    Operator

    Due to no response, we'll high-tail on to the next caller. We'll retrograde next to Elvira Scotto with RBC Capital Markets.

    Elvira Scotto - RBC Capital Markets LLC

    Hey, marvelous afternoon. A yoke of quick clarification questions for me on the Exxon JV project. So just wanted to clarify, are you looking for additional third-party shippers or additional JV partners? And what would Plains ownership interest ultimately be?

    Jeremy L. Goebel - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    So they haven't disclosed the ownership, but ultimately – and then you can imagine that upstream companies and downstream companies, both shippers on pipelines, total and often cases whichever pipelines consign to retract equity. So, in many cases, it's both. So we're really looking for long-term partners in the project and we're judicious in who they talk to and want it to be a long-term confederate that preserves quality, has a marvelous poise sheet. And so we're practically talking to parties that – the shortlist of parties that they arbitrator would rate sense, but candidly they'll be shippers and equity owners in many cases.

    Willie C. W. Chiang - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Elvira, this is Willie. You should consider – you should arbitrator about their position as meaningfully less than 50%. We've made that comment before.

    Elvira Scotto - RBC Capital Markets LLC

    Great. Thanks. And then just a bigger picture question around Cushing. Can you maybe provide a diminutive more color on your view of Cushing and its relevance longer term? Especially in the context of pipelines touching more Permian raw to the Gulf Coast and Canadian barrels potentially bypassing Cushing, especially with the Capline reversal.

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    Over 2 million barrels a day that moves through Cushing, I don't contemplate that materially changing. When you ogle at, I arbitrator you're going to contemplate they hold fewer Permian volumes coming in. You're going to hold more local production in the Mid-Continent. You're going to hold more of the Rockies production coming into Cushing, so Cushing is going to continue to be a very viable hub. And when you ogle at what could potentially high-tail down the Capline system through a connection, it's pretty minuscule in relation to total Canadian production. Much more of that production is going to high-tail through Cushing and down the reversed Capline system.

    Elvira Scotto - RBC Capital Markets LLC

    Okay. Thank you for that.

    Harry N. Pefanis - Plains total American GP LLC

    That reply your question?

    Elvira Scotto - RBC Capital Markets LLC

    Yeah, yeah, that's very helpful. Thank you very much.

    Roy I. Lamoreaux - Plains total American Pipeline LP

    Hey, it looks enjoy we're at the top of the hour. I arbitrator we're going to – and we're going to retrograde ahead and slash off questions at this point. Those of you that are remaining in the queue, Brett and I can clique back with you individually and address those questions. But thank you, everybody, for your time today, and they appreciate you being on the call.

    Operator

    This does conclude today's conference. They thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    SeekingAlpha

    Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference convene Transcript | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

    Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.© The Motley Fool Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

    Martin Marietta Materials Inc  (NYSE: MLM)

    Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call

    Nov. 06, 2018, 2:00 p.m. ET

    Martin Marietta Materials Inc

    Contents:
  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants
  • Prepared Remarks:

    Operator

    Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Martin Marietta's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Amanda and I will be your coordinator today. At this time total participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and reply session will ensue the company's prepared remarks. As a reminder today's conference is being recorded. I would now enjoy to swirl the convene over to your host, Ms. Suzanne Osberg, Vice President of Investor Relations for Martin Marietta. Ms. Osberg you may begin.

    Suzanne Osberg -- Vice President, Investor Relations

    Good afternoon and thank you for joining Martin Marietta's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. With me today are Ward Nye, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Nickolas, Senior Vice President and Chief monetary Officer. To facilitate today's discussion they hold made available during this webcast and on the Investor Relations section of their website Q3 2018 supplemental information, that summarizes their quarterly results and trends.

    As circumstantial on coast 2, this conference convene may comprise forward-looking statements as defined by securities laws in connection with future events, future operating results or monetary performance. enjoy other businesses, they are theme to risks and uncertainties that could antecedent actual results to disagree materially. Except as legally required, they undertake no duty to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether resulting from original information, future developments or otherwise.

    We advert you to the legal disclaimers contained in their third quarter earnings release and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available on both their own and the SEC website. gratify note that total monetary and operating results discussed today are for third quarter 2018. Any comparisons are versus the prior year quarter, unless otherwise noted, and total margin references are based on revenues. Adjusted results exclude acquisition-related net expenses. The impact of selling acquired inventory after its mark-up to equitable value in accordance with acquisition accounting and a restructuring charge.

    Furthermore, non-GAAP measures are defined and reconciled to the nearest GAAP measure in their Q3 2018 supplemental information and SEC filings. They will originate today's earnings convene with Ward Nye, who will argue their third quarter operating performance, as well as market trends heading into 2019. Jim Nickolas will then review their monetary results, a question-and-answer session will follow.

    I will now swirl the convene over to Ward.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you Suzanne and thank you total for joining today's teleconference. Martin Marietta continues to profit from an improving construction cycle and the force of their operational performance. They achieved record third quarter revenues, extreme profit, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA and diluted earnings per share. And they delivered these impressive results while successfully managing near-term challenges from historically towering levels of precipitation.

    We estimate weather negatively impacted third quarter profitability by $40 million to $45 million. Importantly as eminent in today's earnings release, they remain on course to once again deliver record revenues and EBITDA for the plenary year and are well positioned for continued growth in 2019.

    We're confident that the construction cycle is not nearing its peak in Martin Marietta-served markets and a wide attain of factors support constant and sustainable construction growth and favorable pricing in the near to medium term. Specifically for the third quarter, in July and August they experienced more manageable weather patterns, consistent with their internal expectations, aggregates, cement and ready mixed concrete shipments, meaningfully accelerated and pricing besides improved. These trends highlight the attractive exact environment across their geographic footprint, particularly in their key states of Texas, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa and are wholly consistent with their broader expectations.

    In September they experienced extraordinary weather, including Hurricane Florence and record Texas rainfall, halting the third quarter's earlier momentum which is typically their industry's busiest and most profitable period. These notable disruptions impacted more than half of their structure Materials trade as measured by revenues.

    Regardless of underlying market force from mother nature can temporarily interrupt construction activity. Hurricane Florence made landfall in Eastern North Carolina not far from the South Carolina border. This event affected at least 15 of September's 19 selling days, as the region was either preparing for and during and/or cleaning up from the storm. Indeed this unusually slow-moving storm produced torrential rainfall and widespread flooding throughout the Carolinas, leaving an estimated $17 billion of damage and over 18 trillion gallons of water in its wake. That's enough water to fill the Chesapeake Bay and 10 billion gallons of it filled their Castle Hayne and Belgrade quarries in Eastern North Carolina.

    While Texas was not affected by Hurricane Florence, the status experienced its wettest September in the terminal 124 years. Dallas-Fort Worth had nearly 13 inches of rain during the month, while San Antonio received nearly 17 inches of rain, almost 14 inches above normal. Texas is their largest status by revenues, with aggregates, cement and ready mixed concrete operations throughout the Texas Triangle. The negative monetary impact of September's record rainfall was considerably more significant than both Hurricane Florence and terminal year's Hurricane Harvey combined.

    Most importantly we're grateful that their employees and their families are safe in the aftermath of September ascetic weather. Their thoughts, prayers and relief efforts are geared toward those affected, as they rebuild their lives and communities. As a company, they manage what they can control. We've initiated pumping activities that flooded North Carolina quarries and systematically resumed sales at the vast majority of their affected locations. Since North Carolina is their third largest status by revenues and their leading status by unit profitability, Mid-America Group shipments, pricing, production and margins hold been disproportionately negatively affected in the near term. However they view the situation for precisely what it is, temporary.

    As we've seen historically, emergency repairs to houses, businesses and transportation networks are captious in the early days and weeks following natural disasters. Reconstruction efforts typically require years of constant structure activity with increased exact in cumbersome side structure materials. Importantly they remain appropriately focused on their tactical day-to-day decisions and mindful of the long-term aspects of their business.

    We know the dynamics of their industry. The various needs and abilities of their communities, customers and suppliers and how these forces coalesce. That's why Martin Marietta's core has been fashioned around macroeconomics, reflecting the powerful demographic and related trends that they contemplate as so captious to overall success in their space. Accordingly, their leading market positions, discipline pricing strategy and execution of their strategic plan, position Martin Marietta for further growth and shareholder value creation, as the ongoing construction cycle continues for the foreseeable future.

    To be clear, in their view the construction cycle is not nearing its peak in Martin Marietta served markets. In fact many of their most attractive areas while growing are still well below mid-cycle shipment levels. Further it remains difficult to contemplate an nigh to this recovery when the long awaited arrival of increased infrastructure activity has only recently begun in earnest. Throughout their geographic footprint, they contemplate no signs of either a slowdown or markets that are overbuilt.

    To the contrary, employment and population trends together with the solid fiscal health of their key states, support constant and sustainable construction growth in the near to medium term. Their optimism is further bolstered by favorable pricing trends, typically an indicator of underlying market strength.

    Now let's review the third quarter operating results in more detail. tradition aggregate shipments adjusted for third quarter 2017 volumes from the Forsyth County, Georgia quarry they divested in April 2018 grew 4%. They estimate tradition volume growth would hold been closer to 12%, absent the eminent weather headwinds. Public construction activity is typically the most weather-sensitive sector, due to strict Department of Transportation specifications and performance standards.

    Accordingly, tradition aggregate shipments to the infrastructure market were flat, as great public projects under way in North Carolina and Texas were delayed. Importantly, we're encouraged by the recent acceleration in public lettings and compress awards, most notably in Texas, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida and by improving rail service. The percentage of their tradition aggregate shipments to the infrastructure market remains below the company's most recent five-year middling of 43%.

    As status DOTs and contractors continue to address labor constraints and the broader industry benefits from further regulatory reform, infrastructure construction activity should continue to be bolstered from the funding provided by the Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act or speedily Act. Additionally status and local initiatives such as the infrastructure funding proposals included on Colorado's ballot today, expose a growing grassroots pains to alleviate traffic congestion and improve commute times.

    State and local initiatives hold historically garnered strong vote or approval, and they believe they will play an expanded role in public sector activity. tradition aggregate shipments to the nonresidential market increased 5% in the third quarter, driven primarily by data and distribution centers as well as wind farms. Consistent with third-party forecasts, nonresidential construction activity should continue to increase in both the commercial and cumbersome industrial sectors for the next several years in key Martin Marietta markets.

    Additional federal regulatory approvals supported by higher oil prices should notably contribute to increased aggregates consumption from the next wave of energy sector projects, particularly along the Gulf Coast. Construction activity for these projects is expected to originate in earnest in 2019 and beyond. The nonresidential market represented 33% of third quarter tradition aggregate shipments. tradition aggregate shipments to the residential market increased 7%.

    Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Georgia and South Carolina consistently ranked in the Top 10 states nationally for growth in single-family housing units starts, inclusive of Iowa, Maryland and Indiana. Growth in single-family housing unit permits for their top nine states, is outpacing the national average. Looking ahead, regional residential construction growth should continue as supported by employment and population gains in their key markets. And while mortgage rate increases may temporarily dampen the growth of housing starts, once stabilized, the residential market will adapt and continue to strengthen.

    Our view in this respect is not based upon blind optimism and hope it's fact-based. Specifically, housing starts hold yet to return to historical levels, despite notable population gains. They contemplate the home structure industry is just genesis to address the shortage of single-family housing units that exists, particularly for entry-level homes. Their leading positions in southeastern and southwestern states proffer superior opportunities to profit from this expected growth. Furthermore, continued force in residential construction supports future infrastructure and nonresidential activity.

    The residential market accounted for 20% of third quarter aggregate shipments. To conclude their discussion on end-users, tradition aggregate shipments to the ChemRock/Rail market accounted for the remaining third quarter shipments and increased 6%, reflecting improved ballast shipments for the Midwest and Rocky Mountain Divisions. tradition aggregates pricing improved 3%. The combination of product and geographic merge lowered the company's middling selling cost by $0.13 per ton or 1%.

    The Mid-America Group which includes the Carolina's, posted tradition pricing growth of nearly 3% reflecting the impact of weather and a higher percentage of lower priced ballast shipments. Product mix, muted tradition pricing growth for the Southeast Group to 2%, as their offshore operations opportunistically shipped more lower priced sand material.

    Double digit pricing growth in Colorado was partially offset by product merge and reduced long haul shipments in Texas, resulting in a 3% increase in West Group pricing. Factoring in, expected plenary year product and geographic mix, tradition aggregates pricing is expected to increase 3% to 4% for 2018. The recently acquired Bluegrass Materials operations remain on track in 2018, despite Maryland's second wettest year on record. As a reminder selling prices for these operations are 10% to 15% below their corporate average.

    Synergy realization is progressing ahead of plan. Cement shipments and pricing increased 8% and 3% respectively, reflecting positive exact in the vibrant Texas economy. Importantly, both their Midlothian and Hunter operations reported double digit volume growth prior to September's record rainfall, highlighting the underlying exact in their Texas markets. Their Cement trade has recently announced an $8 per ton cost increase efficient April 2019.

    Turning to their downstream businesses. Ready-mixed concrete shipments increased 3%, with solid gains throughout the Rocky Mountain and Southwest Divisions, despite September's record rainfall in Texas. Overall, third quarter ready mixed concrete prices increased 3%, with solid improvements in most markets.

    In Colorado, project delays and permitting issues led to the 9% diminish in stinging mixed asphalt shipments. Pricing was relatively flat as more contractors bid on both a reduced number of as well as more geographically concentrated Colorado DOT projects. This transitory situation should improve in 2019 with greater Colorado DOT funding, and more dispersed public works.

    I'll now swirl the convene over to Jim to argue more specifically their third quarter monetary results.

    James Nickolas -- Senior Vice President and Chief monetary Officer

    Thank you, Ward. The structure Materials trade achieved products and services revenues of $1.1 billion, a 12% increase, and an all-time record for the company. extreme profit increased 7% to $288 million. These results included $61 million product revenue contribution from the acquired Bluegrass operations and adjusted extreme margins comparable with their tradition Mid-Atlantic and Southeast operations.

    Overall, aggregates product extreme margin was 30.4% which includes $8 million negative impact, related to selling the acquired inventory after its markup to equitable value as allotment of acquisition accounting. Excluding this impact, adjusted aggregates product extreme margin was 31.6%. We're relatively flat compared with the prior year quarter, despite weather disruptions and higher diesel expenses that negatively impacted their quarterly cost and efficiency profile. As Ward mentioned, their cement operations benefited from volume and pricing growth in Texas, leading to a 210 basis point expansion of product extreme margin to 33.1%.

    Magnesia Specialties once again posted record revenues and profitability, as the trade benefits from increased global exact for magnesia chemical products, as well as strong domestic steel production. Operating efficiencies and lower unit energy costs contributed to a 370 basis points expansion in product extreme margin to 39.2%. During the third quarter they commenced a planned restructuring initiative to consolidate 20 sites in the associated mixer truck fleet for Southwest ready merge concrete operations. These actions are designed to improve the long-term profitability of the Southwest business.

    We incurred a $7 million restructuring charge, which is recorded in other operating expenses for the West Group, for related asset impairment and severance costs. This restructuring should pay for itself in less than 12 months. Their strong cash flow allowed us to repurchase 305,000 shares of their common stock at a total cost of $60 million during the quarter.

    In addition to share repurchases, their Board of Directors approved a 9% increase to their quarterly cash dividend payment in August. This is one of the larger percentage increases in the company's annual dividend and indicative of their positive trade outlook. Since becoming a public company in 1994, they hold steadily maintained or increased their dividend, including throughout the long years of the distinguished Recession. They hold now returned more than $1.3 billion to shareholders through combination of meaningful and sustainable dividends and share repurchases since the announcement of their share repurchase program in February 2015.

    We besides made a contribution of $150 million to their qualified, defined profit blueprint during the quarter. As a result this blueprint is now fully funded and they were able to deduct these contributions out of 2017 federal income tax return at a higher rate compared with the original lower corporate federal income tax rate for 2018. For the trailing 12 months ended September 2018, their ratio of consolidated net debt to consolidated EBITDA as defined in the applicable credit agreement was 2.72 times.

    We anticipate to be modestly above the top nigh of their target leverage ratio of 2 to 2.5 times at year-end, remaining well within their covenants in their credit agreement. 2018 capital expenditures are currently expected to be $375 million, down from their initial full-year guidance of $450 million to $500 million. This reduction is largely a duty of managing project timing as well as prioritizing projects, focused on capital efficiency and higher returns.

    Martin Marietta will continue to further shareholder value, by opportunistically deploying free cash flow, through growing dividends and share repurchases, as well as value-enhancing acquisitions and improving organic investment, total while returning to their target leverage ratio. They remain on track to again deliver record revenues and EBITDA for the plenary year. And as circumstantial in today's release, they updated their plenary year 2018 guidance to reflect their year-to-date results and expectations.

    We now anticipate tradition aggregate shipments to attain from flat to up 1% and tradition pricing to increase in the attain of 3% to 4%. On a consolidated basis, they anticipate total revenues to attain from $4,135 million to $4,255 million and adjusted EBITDA to attain from $1,100 million to $1,145 million.

    With that I'll swirl the convene back over to Ward.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thanks Jim. We're confident about Martin Marietta's outlook, given the disciplined execution of their strategic blueprint and their attractive geographic footprint. Looking ahead to 2019, they anticipate mid-single digit growth in both aggregates shipment and pricing. The exact for their construction materials combined with widespread customer optimism is strong and they contemplate no signs of these dynamics will abate in either the short or longer-term. Importantly, they hold the faculty and capacity to meet future market demands.

    Remember, their overall aggregate shipments are still 10% below mid-cycle exact with key states such as Georgia and Maryland, home to the majority, to shape Bluegrass operations, along with North Carolina, 20% to 25% below mid-cycle demand. They fully intend to profit from the strong underlying exact dynamics and believe the current construction cycle will continue to grow at a constant pace in 2019 for each of the company's three primary construction end-use markets.

    If the operator will now provide the required instructions, we'll swirl their attention to addressing your questions.

    Questions and Answers:

    Operator

    Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Their first question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson of Thompson Research Group. Your line is open.

    Kathryn Thompson -- Thompson Research Group. -- Analyst

    Hi. Thank you for taking the questions today. First just focusing on the 2019 outlook really a two-part question. What gives you aplomb for the mid-single digit volume and pricing for 2019? And layering in -- on that, with the acceleration of public lettings in Texas, Colorado and Georgia, could you talk about the types of projects you're seeing? Are these overlay their larger character projects? Because extensively that would play into your 2019 outlook. Thank you.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Good afternoon, Katherine and thanks for your question. I arbitrator allotment of what you just said, answers the first allotment of it. So if they advance back and say, looking at status lettings and compress awards in Florida, they're up 21%; in North Carolina they're up 65%; and Texas they're up 33%. So when we're looking at that character of activity in the public area, where as you know over the terminal several years it's been below 40% of their volumes. They arbitrator this is marvelous evidence that it's heading back toward more traditional areas as well, at least on a percentage basis, because as you recall they typically attain from 45% to 48%, not less than 40%.

    So if we're looking at that and they anticipate more public activity, they arbitrator that's actually very good. They arbitrator in those states it's very good. Here's what they besides see. We're seeing more design build work and design build work typically means larger and more complicated projects. In many places they contemplate this replacing some P3 work which they actually arbitrator is really quite good. So from your perspective Katharine, there are larger jobs, they're more complicated jobs, oftentimes they hold to multiple primes and those types of work are typically from the ground up. And what I involve by that is you'll contemplate the entire array of aggregate products from ground material, at the very genesis of projects to clean stone, as it's incorporated into asphalt or concrete as they retrograde through. I arbitrator that's the biggest piece on infrastructure.

    We besides feel marvelous about nonres and they feel marvelous about res. If we're looking at the Dodge Momentum Index, that and the ABI both remain positive. We're looking at the next great wave of multi-year energy projects coming into Texas, and really as they retrograde into 2019. And the other thing that strikes us is in Martin Marietta markets housing still remains very strong. I involve we're looking at housing numbers this year that are still well below the 50-year middling of 1.5 million starts. They contemplate that there is not enough original or existing homes available to meet current demand.

    We're talking with homebuilders and listening to their commentary as well, and they're seeing strong housing fundamentals. And I arbitrator the other piece of it, that's needful is, if you arbitrator about where the majority of their footprint is, it's southeastern and southwestern. And they feel enjoy those geographies really proffer superior opportunities for housing in the near term and the longer term. So I hope that answered both parts of your question, Kathryn.

    Kathryn Thompson -- Thompson Research Group. -- Analyst

    It did. And tagging onto infrastructure, aggregate shipments were flat in the quarter, given North Carolina, Texas, weather delays. If the weather had been sustained in July and August through September any thought how shipments would hold shaked out?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Well, I arbitrator if they had seen that retrograde the way that they though it would, I arbitrator shipments would hold been up 12% for the quarter, and that's very much in keeping with what we've thought, seeing that character of double digit performance for the quarter, was wholly consistent with what they contemplate in underlying market demand. And that's what gives us the character of aplomb that they hold looking into 2019 as well, Kathryn.

    Kathryn Thompson -- Thompson Research Group. -- Analyst

    Okay. And then in shipments in the Southeast Group increased nearly 12%. Is this a symptom we're seeing improved long-haul distribution in the Florida yards? Is seems that signal the easing of bottleneck in rails or other factors? And maybe just because rails hold been such a focus for this year, any color on that would be very helpful. Thank you.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you, Kathryn. I arbitrator it's twofold. Number one, trade was better in Atlanta and they arbitrator that will continue to be the case. And number two, trade was improving at the Florida yards. Florida DOT has a very marvelous DOT budget this year, they're going to hold a very similar looking budget next year. And obviously the more they contemplate going into Florida the better. maintain in humor the southeastern pricing still would hold had a headwind, relative to more lower priced sand products coming into that market from offshore as well. So what I would yelp is, as they ogle at that overall market, they arbitrator it's attractive and they arbitrator it's early attractive.

    Kathryn Thompson -- Thompson Research Group -- Analyst

    Great. Thank you so much.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you, Kathryn.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question is from the line of Phil Ng of Jefferies. Your line is open.

    Phil Ng -- Jefferies. -- Analyst

    Hey, guys. 12% tradition volumes in aggregates export, it was certainly very strong. Can you parse out what markets really stood out for you, given some of the bottlenecks you're seeing in rail and labor? Is this flat sustainable as they ogle at 2019?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Good afternoon, Phil. The markets that were particularly looking good, Mid-Atlantic was looking good; North Carolina was demonstrating marvelous attractive growth. They were seeing marvelous attractive growth in the southeast; they were seeing attractive growth in Texas when the weather was dry and we're seeing attractive growth in the Midwest when the weather was dry. So as they ogle across the vast majority of their footprint, they were seeing marvelous activity in total of them. And the other thing that I arbitrator it's needful Phil, as they ogle into 2019, what I would explain you, is each one of their division presence, I arbitrator they're going to hold a better 2019 than they did 2018. So I hope that's helpful.

    Phil Ng -- Jefferies. -- Analyst

    Okay. That's really helpful. And then your ready-mix and asphalt trade margins were under pressure a diminutive bit. Asphalt, I would imagine a marvelous chunk of your trade is more than a pass-through dynamic to liquid asphalt. Can you back quantify that? And how quickly can you be glean caught up? And then on the ready-mix side, I arbitrator it was up. Did weather restrict some of the momentum in Texas? And how should they arbitrator about margin there being total caught up? Thanks.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Absolutely. So if they ogle at the ready-mix trade what I would yelp is twofold. A very attractive healthy ready-mix trade in Colorado, they were clearly weather affected in Texas. You still saw volumes up in Texas, despite the fact that it was the wettest September on record. So I would yelp those would be the primary drivers relative to the Texas business. If they arbitrator about asphalt, total by itself, what I will yelp is this, you had larger projects in Colorado this year, but there were fewer of them. So you had great projects, more focused around Denver, so it's a practical matter, you are seeing more contractors buying for fewer but larger projects. They arbitrator that rule is actually changing next year and we're likely to contemplate much more work up and down the I-25 carter, which is what we've typically seen. You might hold seen that really even as they got to their mid-year the common tax revenues in Colorado were so attractive, that Colorado was looking to let a marvelous bit of work in calendar year -- calendar quarter Q4, birthright now. So again, I arbitrator that was the single-largest driver relative to stinging mix.

    And you besides had liquid pricing touching up. I finish arbitrator in many respects that's going to be helpful relative to stinging merge pricing. That's not something we're particularly concerned about, because most of their projects are indexed in that state, and they finish hold their own storage facility not far outside (inaudible).

    So again, Phil, I hope that was helpful.

    Phil Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst

    Very helpful. Thanks a lot. marvelous luck on the quarter.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question is from the line of Scott Schrier of Citi. Your line is open.

    Scott Schrier -- Citigroup Inc -- Analyst

    Hi, marvelous afternoon. Just looking at the aggregates margins and obviously there is a lot of hullabaloo in there with fixed cost absorption efficiencies and cost. I'm snoopy if you could talk a diminutive bit about the overall environment, yelp for markets that weren't impacted by weather or North Carolina, Texas when they were dry, how did the cost cost and how the operating efficiencies are looking in aggregates currently?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah, when the volumes are working, the way that they saw the volumes working in July and August, Scott, the cost profile, the pricing everything else is actually working just as you would expect. I involve you nailed it. The fact is, if you ogle at their North Carolina and Texas which are two outsized disproportionately needful states in North Carolina. When those two hold types of events that they saw in Q3, we're going to feel it. So actually, as I step back and retract a ogle at that business, recognize saw what it had endured in those two states and the results that they establish up, actually feel quite marvelous about that. And again, I arbitrator to the extent that you believe as they do, that 2019 is going to be a year where you contemplate marvelous volumes in those states, I arbitrator it actually portends very well for what they contemplate in the year ahead.

    Scott Schrier -- Citigroup Inc -- Analyst

    Got it. And then just following up on your earlier comment on design build, I involve obviously you can control what you can control and there is a lot of external factors that have, I guess you, investors everybody frustrated with how volumes are going. And the one thing I'm thinking is, it's really marvelous that you're talking about these larger character project and they contemplate it in the transportation award that's projects are getting larger. But with that -- did that carry may be a higher drift for certain projects to glean cancelled or more lumpiness and ongoing delays? I guess I'm just worried or concerned or what finish you arbitrator that if they sit here 12 months today on the earnings call, the commentary we'll talk about will hold a lot of great projects and backlog, but these benevolent of projects glean delayed. Such as any color around how you contemplate that playing out?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    My common view is design build jobs are ones that they should celebrate. Because if you retrograde back to some of the things that I arbitrator you've heard from the industry over the past several years, that times some of the holdups hold been in getting design work out of DOTs because of labor constraints. I arbitrator to the extent that you're seeing great JVs advance forward with design-build projects in today's environment, I arbitrator that actually serves to accelerate compress delivery and execution.

    The other thing that I believe, that I arbitrator is really going to back Scott, is maintain in humor the more public work they contemplate going on, particularly design builds or others. These typically will hold marvelous arduous finish dates relative to them. And I arbitrator that's besides going to maintain marvelous pace to the overall construction activity. You don't contemplate that as much in nonres, you clearly don't contemplate it as much in residential. So as I ogle at in a higher degree of design build, I actually view that as marvelous word for the industry and in that context, a means of structure materials industry.

    Scott Schrier -- Citigroup Inc -- Analyst

    Great. Thanks for that.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you, Scott.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question is from the line of Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

    Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

    Yes, hi, marvelous afternoon.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Hi, Jerry.

    Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

    Ward, can you talk about the cadence of pricing that you've seen over the course of this year? And what hold you seen for aggregates specifically in terms of competitor pricing discipline? How is the situation involve this year compared to terminal year?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    I arbitrator this year has gone -- if you ogle at where we're guiding, we're guiding very much within the attain that they talked about at the genesis of the year. What I'm seeing birthright now relative to next year, actually it looks to be a better environment in many respects, because I arbitrator people recognize the underlying exact is so strong. I involve here is something that they can ogle at internally Jerry, and I arbitrator it underscores why they feel marvelous about the pricing.

    We're going into 2019 with total of their downstream businesses having their largest backlogs in their history. And what we're hearing from many of their customers is they're in the identical place. So it's a practical matter, it's not unusual for a sophisticated downstream customer, to not want to flee away from their cost increase, because in many respects that helps them in their trade total by themselves. So at this point, we'll obviously advance out later with more definitive guidance relative to pricing in 2019. But we're certainly seeing clean stone increases in many areas between the $1 and $2 a ton. And I arbitrator that actually gives you a distinguished snapshot of what they are hearing relative to exact and how people are looking at 2019.

    Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

    And as you arbitrator about the cost structure from here, this year in a challenging weather environment, you're going to be growing EBITDA a touch faster than sales, if they contemplate the picture of mid-single digit volume and mid-single digit pricing playing out next year. I guess can you retrograde back to seeing EBITDA growing three times the flat of sales growth? Or any touching pieces they should maintain in humor about the cost structure 2019 versus 2018?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Well, I arbitrator much of it goes back to some of the commentary that they made in the prepared remarks. And that is, retract a ogle at the allotment of the country that's still operating considerably below mid-cycle. And if you start seeing the character of performance out of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and others, that certainly population trends would indicate. Those are some of the most powerful places in which they operate and that would clearly drive EBITDA in some very different ways.

    The other thing that I will remind you is coming into the year, this year, obviously cement has had, again what I arbitrator it's a pretty attractive year. But they besides came into the year having done a great capital project on their Midlothian plant terminal year. And they were diminutive bit late coming out of the gate in January and February in the cement market in Texas. So again if you arbitrator about, what I believe it's going to be a very attractive Texas cement market next year and a very attractive southeastern and Mid-Atlantic aggregates market next year. I'll let you finish the math, but again I arbitrator those are markets that probably back reply your questions, as well as anything.

    Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

    Okay. Thank you.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you, Jerry.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question comes from the line of Michael Wood of Nomura Instinet. Your line is open.

    Michael Wood -- Nomura Instinet -- Analyst

    Hi. marvelous afternoon.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Hi, Mike.

    Michael Wood -- Nomura Instinet -- Analyst

    If you talk about industry bottlenecks, Texas in particular, I'm snoopy when pent-up exact gets released in more prevalent weather, what are the industry constraints the growth in particular public spending in nonres?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    I arbitrator from their perspective there is not any. So if you're looking at it purely from a Martin Marietta perspective, they can establish on the ground whatever contractors require. I arbitrator one of the issues the contractors are working through birthright now is simply relative to labor inputs going on with respect to trucking. And here a yoke of things that I would point out to you, in the host of their markets we're simply seeing contracts working longer hours and working weekends, that's not a surprise, the nigh of the year is coming.

    We're besides seeing truck driver shortages being addressed in several ways. They contemplate in a number of markets the housing dollar bonus is being given to drivers, drivers are being given free healthcare. But here is some stats, that I arbitrator are needful to maintain in mind, Mike. HEC establish out a report in August 2018 and 62% of contractors hold turned to ground pay increases, because they recognize the necessity to glean more people in to finish the work. And I arbitrator if you advance back and say, has labor been an issue for contractors through this year? It absolutely has. Has trucking been a shortage? It has. I arbitrator people are addressing it.

    One of their great contractors here in North Carolina would explain me, he is going to hold a record year and every day there are 10% fewer trucks available than he wishes. And you know what, that's not something that I arbitrator is going to persist. So again, I finish arbitrator rail has besides been a bit of a bottleneck this year. I finish contemplate that getting better. You can listen to the earnings calls from the different Class I railroads, I arbitrator they're very focused on dealing with this. And they finish contemplate progress in that regard. So are there bottlenecks? There are. Are they on their end? They're not. finish they contemplate them in great allotment getting better? They do.

    Michael Wood -- Nomura Instinet -- Analyst

    That's helpful. And since it's election day are there any midterm votes that you're watching in terms of status flat infrastructure propositions that you might want to convene their attention to?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    What I would explain you is, let's total watch that together. I think, (inaudible) would explain you that there are over 300 ballot initiatives on various ballots today. That gives you a distinguished feel for simply how many projects there are out there and how many jurisdictions we're looking at it. One of the things that they would just watch because we're curious, we're anxious to contemplate how things retrograde in Colorado this evening.

    We arbitrator Colorado is going to be in a distinguished region if nothing happens. But maintain in mind, there are two different ballot initiatives in that status this evening. One inspirationally called Let's Go, Colorado, and the other a diminutive bit more bluntly, Fix Their Damn Roads. So we'll watch that carefully and contemplate how that shakes out.

    Michael Wood -- Nomura Instinet -- Analyst

    Great. Thank you.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you, Mike.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question is from the line of Stanley Elliott of Stifel.

    Stanley Elliott -- Stifel, Nicolaus & Company -- Analyst

    Hey, there. marvelous morning, marvelous afternoon. Thank you, guys, for taking my question. Quick question on the CapEx spend and the deferral piece. Does that slip into next year? How finish they arbitrator about CapEx? And I guess the root of the question is that you're too seven-ish (ph) birthright now, I involve it's not arduous to arbitrator that you guys could glean below two times in terms of a net debt-to-EBITDA next year, and I'm just trying to frame up some of the casual implications.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Look, I'll address the CapEx, then swirl it over to Jim to give you a diminutive bit more color. Here is what I would say, look, we've been spending CapEx above DD&A for the past several years. And I arbitrator we've actually spent it very well. I arbitrator if we're looking at something below $400 million this year as they really ogle at the plenary year, I would explain you that's probably not a monstrous ZIP code for you to start thinking about next year as well. We're going to be focused on CapEx that really gives the character of return that they anticipate and you would expect, so they probably will contemplate that dial back just a diminutive bit. But I know your question was more than just about CapEx, so let me swirl the poise of it over to Jim to respond.

    James Nickolas -- Senior Vice President and Chief monetary Officer

    Yeah. So, Stanley, the company's capital allocation priorities are unchanged. The first convene on capital is the birthright acquisition that will enable their successful execution of their growth plan, ensue with investing in trade in organic growth and CapEx that Ward mentioned being relatively constant to the next year. And then beyond that, returning cash to shareholders through a meaningful, sustainable dividend, total while targeting -- and the share repurchases, total while targeting their 2 to 2.5 times debt-to-EBITDA ratio. Just going to point out, in the terminal six months, we've completed the second largest acquisition in the company's history, which was total cash and debt financed. Since then, we've de-risked the poise sheet, paying down debt and funding their qualified defined profit plan.

    Additionally, as they mentioned, they bought back shares in Q3, $60 million worth. It's been about 1.5 years since they repurchased shares, so we're back in the market. They besides increased the dividend 9% this August. So, we're very -- zeal very marvelous about their future. And with the equity market sales of late, they view their shares as cheap and we'll be actively considering share repurchases. We'll be opportunistic to the balanced approach with their cash flows. But, again, given their positive outlook for the future and their expectations for growing earnings, share repurchases will be funded through cash flow from operations going forward.

    We are focused on lowering their leverage to within their target ratio. We're going to maintain strengthening the poise sheet. But, again, given the cheap stock price, we're going to be looking at that as well. All-in-all, we're taking a balanced approach and they anticipate to fund the needs of the business, repay debt and repurchase shares, total while de-levering over the next 12 months.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Hey Stanley, I guess the punch line is, we've got a high-class problem. I arbitrator we're going to be in a region that they can fund their CapEx the way that they necessity to. I arbitrator they finish transactions really well. I arbitrator we've got a team that not only does the transactions themselves well, but I know they hold an operating team that makes them execute extraordinarily well. And again, being in a position that they can retract a ogle at share buybacks and doing things enjoy we're doing with the dividend, puts us in a very attractive spot and we're going to relish this and retract edge of it.

    Stanley Elliott -- Stifel, Nicolaus & Company -- Analyst

    Yeah, no doubt. And then the aggregate pricing sounds very good. Cement pricing, you talked about the $8 per ton. Can you talk about benevolent of the confidence? Sometimes the cement pricing tends to be a diminutive more volatile, I guess. What are you seeing in the Texas market that gives you aplomb that the $8 is a marvelous number for us in the coming year?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Well, what I would animate you to finish is just finish some other channel checks and glean a sense of where you arbitrator competitors are there as well. And my guess is, you'll glean some console when you ogle at that. That's certainly what we're seeing as they hear from customers and others in that marketplace. I arbitrator the other piece of it goes back to some of the commentary that I offered before. And that is the downstream businesses backlogs are really very, very high. And this was a year in which cement was relatively tight in Texas. I arbitrator you could certainly contemplate that next year as well.

    And again, the location of those plants and where I arbitrator they are in the cycle is what gives me the character of aplomb around that, that I hold as they retrograde into 2018 -- into 2019, condone me.

    Stanley Elliott -- Stifel, Nicolaus & Company -- Analyst

    Perfect. appreciate the time and congrats on a nice work in a tough year.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you so much, Stanley.

    Operator

    Thank you. Their next question is from the line of Garik Shmois of Longbow Research. Your line is open.

    Jeffrey Stevenson -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

    Hey, this is Jeff Stevenson on for Garik. My first question is on weather impacted markets and how long North Carolina, for example, takes to normalize? finish you anticipate this to potentially bleed into next year? And if so has it factored into your guidance?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    I don't arbitrator it's going to bleed into next year. Obviously, it's significantly affected the quarter. As I indicated in the prepared remarks, they did hold two quarries in the eastern allotment of the status that ended up being a catcher's mitt for a lot of floodwater. What I'd explain you is, sadly, they hold gotten pretty marvelous at this, and they build up inventories at those eastern locations recognizing that if a hurricane comes along, they necessity to be able to sell materials. So I don't arbitrator we're going to be in material shortage land around either Belgrade or Castle Hayne. Those are the two quarries had been filled with water. They are undertaking pumping at those quarries.

    My guess is, if we're looking at Belgrade, it's probably four to six months to glean the water out of there. Castle Hayne actually has a diminutive bit more. It has about 8 billion gallons of water in it. That's probably going to be closer to six to nine months. However, I finish not anticipate that being a market situation as they retrograde into next year. We're going to hold flee some, pumps. I mean, that's going to cost us modestly more money for some epoch of time. But I don't contemplate that being something that, if I'm you and I'm modeling out 2019, I'm not putting that very towering or my very best.

    Jeffrey Stevenson -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

    Great. Great. And I just had a question on incremental margins for next year with a potentially stronger exact environment and relatively easier comps, could there be any upward bias?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Well, again, I'll retract you back to the geography. They will give you a marvelous view of 2019 when they advance out in February, so I don't want to glean too far over my skis birthright now. But, obviously, what they contemplate birthright now for 2019 looks attractive and enjoy the geographies, Jeff. So I'll leave it at that for birthright now.

    Jeffrey Stevenson -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

    Okay. And then lastly, cement guidance was establish down slightly, I was just wondering if you could provide any more color on the buckets driving that?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    I arbitrator primarily it was September rains, that was your stout single issue. But I know Jim had some comments on cement as well.

    James Nickolas -- Senior Vice President and Chief monetary Officer

    If your question's on Q3, it was September rains, if your question's on Q4, it's the rains we've already seen in October, so far for Texas.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    So they try to retract everything we've seen into account with a plenary year of the diminutive bit that's left in 2018.

    Jeffrey Stevenson -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

    Got it. Thank you.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you, Jeff.

    Operator

    Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Their next question is from the line of Adam Thalhimer of Thompson Davis. Your line is open.

    Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

    Hey, marvelous afternoon.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Hello.

    Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

    Ward, I wanted to start first on the ready-mix pricing, which increased over $5 sequentially. Just snoopy what drove that?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    I'm sorry, what my retract was on that?

    Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

    On ready mix, pricing.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Yeah. Look, I think, clearly, you've got a very attractive ready merge market in Colorado with towering barriers to entry and a very marvelous ready merge business. I think, clearly, they were seeing the character of increases in Texas that you would anticipate to see, given the types of backlogs that are there and what I arbitrator can be a tightness in that market in many respects. So, I arbitrator in most regards, Adam, it's the symptom of a marvelous healthy marketplace with marvelous underlying demand. So, I arbitrator those are your primary drivers.

    Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

    So there's nothing unusual in Q2 that can sojourn at that level?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    No, there was nothing unusual in Q2. In fact, the things that were unusual in Q2 or Q3 were more things in their face, not things at their back.

    Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

    And then the pricing -- aggregates pricing for 2019, how does that -- does that start to flow through mostly in January next year?

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    It varies. Some cost increases will retrograde on in January, some increases may retrograde on in, in April. Look, if you're sitting where I am and where you are, you've got biased toward January. My guess is most will retrograde in January. I arbitrator a marvelous number will retrograde in April. And the simple fact is, construction doesn't really glean under way in earnest until the second half of March. So it's more of an optical issue than a real issue. But I arbitrator you'll probably hold most going in January, you will hold some that will going in April.

    Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

    Perfect. Okay, thanks Ward.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you.

    Operator

    Thank you. And at this time, there are no further questions in the queue. I'd enjoy to swirl the conference back over to Mr. Ward Nye for closing remarks.

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    Thank you for joining their third quarter 2018 earnings conference call. Their commitment to operational excellence and the disciplined execution of their strategic blueprint positions Martin Marietta to drive shareholder value as they continue to profit from the constant multi-year construction recovery. They ogle forward to discussing their fourth quarter and plenary year 2018 results in February. As always, we're available for any follow-up questions with you. Thank you again for your time and your continued support of Martin Marietta. hold a distinguished day.

    Operator

    Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone hold a distinguished day.

    Duration: 50 minutes

    Call participants:

    Suzanne Osberg -- Vice President, Investor Relations

    Howard Nye -- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

    James Nickolas -- Senior Vice President and Chief monetary Officer

    Kathryn Thompson -- Thompson Research Group. -- Analyst

    Kathryn Thompson -- Thompson Research Group -- Analyst

    Phil Ng -- Jefferies. -- Analyst

    Phil Ng -- Jefferies -- Analyst

    Scott Schrier -- Citigroup Inc -- Analyst

    Jerry Revich -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

    Michael Wood -- Nomura Instinet -- Analyst

    Stanley Elliott -- Stifel, Nicolaus & Company -- Analyst

    Jeffrey Stevenson -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

    Adam Thalhimer -- Thompson Davis -- Analyst

    More MLM analysis

    Transcript powered by AlphaStreet

    This article is a transcript of this conference convene produced for The Motley Fool. While they strive for their ridiculous Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with total their articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your employ of this content, and they strongly animate you to finish your own research, including listening to the convene yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. gratify contemplate their Terms and Conditions for additional details, including their Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.

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    Why Office Transaction Volumes Are Stagnant | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

    Peter Muoio Peter Muoio is the chief economist for Ten-X.

    Office deal volume nationally has increased only slowly since 2015, thanks to fragile fundamentals that are now genesis to deteriorate. Generally, the asset class has seen towering vacancy rates and original trends, enjoy telecommuting and file storage, in the office space that has led companies to shed office space. While deal volumes hold increased slowly, they are genesis to accelerate up. Office deal volume has been consistent since 2017, but bumped up 17.5% in the third quarter over the second quarter 2018 and is up 15% year over-year to $34.3 billion, according to Ten-X Research. However, while the quarter was strong, overall office volume trends are slow.

    “Year-to-date in 2018, office volume, $92.6 billion, is 3.6% lower than in the identical epoch 2017, $96 billion, illustrating this flat trend in volume,” Peter Muoio, Ph.D., EVP of Ten-X and a speaker at the recent Trigild Lender Conference in San Diego, tells GlobeSt.com. “We besides arbitrator a slowdown in deal volume could be in store for 2019. Interest rates are on the mount and cap rate spreads are tight, and they anticipate cap rates to drift higher in 2019 in accordance with those pressures. This would establish downward pressure on valuations, which may rate sellers reluctant to complete deals.”

    In general, single-asset office properties hold led investment activity. “Single-asset sales are besides driving the office market to a greater degree this year, and single-asset volume grew 21% year-over-year in 3Q’18. Portfolio and entity-level deals swamped the market in 2015-2016 but hold since receded,” adds Muoio.

    These are national trends, but deal volume varies from market to market. CBD office investment has grown 58% year-over-year to $12.1 billion in the third quarter, rebounding from a late 2017. “Suburban office volume in 3Q’18, meanwhile, was flat year-over-year at $22.1 billion,” explains Muoio. “However, investors besides issue to be showing increasing interest in secondary and tertiary markets. Primary market deal volume grew 12.2% year-over-year in 3Q’18, while office volume in secondary and tertiary markets is up 18.2% year-over-year. Tighter cap rates and a run-up in prices in the great gateway markets this cycle is forcing investors to consider assets in other markets to achieve desired returns.”

    There are global pressures that can further impact transactions volumes. Muoio says that Brexit and trade wars are among his top concerns, as well as a potential combat between Italy and the European Union. “Brexit and Italy-EU hold the potential to rattle markets and lead to a liquidity/credit based disruption to the economy and CRE investment flows,” he says. “We hold been very concerned that overarching aggressive trade policy with Europe and Asia—specifically China—could establish a damper on cross-border investment in US office real estate. Indeed, cross-border investment in the US office sector declined 40% year-over-year to $18.5 billion in 3Q’18, and there is clear trend of quaint investors cycling out of US office over the terminal two years. The other big, obvious potential upshot from a trade war is a slowdown in the global economy, and with it exact for office space in the US.”



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    Operations & Process Management: Principles & Practice for Strategic ImpactOperations & Process Management: Principles & Practice for Strategic Impact
    By Nigel Slack, Alistair Jones
    Publisher : Pearson (Feb 2018)
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    Publisher : Pearson (Aug 2017)
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